Space Supply Chain Bottlenecks:
Components, Minerals and Capacity

Method: from Bill of Materials to Bottleneck Score

How does Setcoin decide which parts are bottlenecks, and how can a reader test the ranking?

A Satellite Traced Part by Part

Where does each part of a typical low-orbit satellite come from, and which ones decide when it can fly?

The Supply Chain in Tiers: Primes, Subsystems, Parts and Materials

How is the space supply chain organised, and where in it do bottlenecks form?

How the Bottlenecks Formed: a Timeline, 2018–2026

How did the space supply chain move from craft production to bottlenecks in eight years?

Vertical Integration: Why the Largest Builders Make Their Own Parts

How much of their supply chain do SpaceX, Amazon and Rocket Lab control, and what does it mean for everyone else?

Radiation-Hardened Processors and Space-Grade Electronics

Why are space computers hard to buy, who makes them, and is the shortage easing?

The EEE Parts Problem: Memories, Power Parts and Obsolescence

Beyond processors, why do ordinary-looking electronic parts delay satellites?

Space Solar Cells: III-V Multi-Junction

Who makes the high-efficiency solar cells that power long-life satellites, how much can they make, and is it enough?

Silicon, Perovskites and the Challengers to III-V Cells

Can cheaper solar technologies power the constellation boom, and what supply risks do they bring?

Germanium and Gallium: the Minerals Beneath the Solar Cell

How exposed is the space industry to China's controls on gallium and germanium, and what happens when the US suspension ends?

Optical Inter-Satellite Terminals

Why are laser terminals the top-ranked bottleneck, and when will supply catch up?

Case Study: How Optical Terminals Delayed a Defence Constellation

What happened to optical terminal supply for the Space Development Agency's Tranche 1, and what does it teach?

Electric Propulsion: Hall Thrusters and Their Makers

Who makes the thrusters that move constellation satellites, and is thruster supply a constraint?

Propellants for Electric Propulsion: Xenon, Krypton, Argon and Iodine

Is there enough xenon for the constellation boom, and what do the alternatives cost?

Chemical Propulsion and Hydrazine

Is the supply of chemical propellants and thrusters for satellites secure?

Solid Rocket Motors: Shared with Missiles

Why do solid rocket motors rank second, and how does missile demand affect space launch?

Reaction Wheels, Star Trackers and Attitude Control

Are the parts that point satellites a bottleneck for constellation builders?

Batteries and Power Electronics

Are space batteries and power-conditioning parts constrained?

Switchgear, Connectors and the Small Parts Nobody Plans For

Why do the cheapest parts now have the longest lead times?

RF Components, GaN and Phased Arrays

How exposed are satellite radios and antennas to semiconductor and gallium supply?

Structures, Composites and Carbon Fibre

Are satellite and launcher structures limited by materials supply?

Optics and Sensors: Infrared Focal Planes and Imaging Payloads

Are the sensors for missile warning, tracking and Earth observation a bottleneck?

User Terminals and the Ground Segment

Is the ground side of space systems, user terminals, gateways and antennas, a supply constraint?

Satellite Factories: How Many Satellites Can the World Build?

How much satellite assembly capacity exists, where is it, and is it the constraint?

Test Facilities: Thermal Vacuum, Vibration and EMC

Is environmental test capacity a hidden bottleneck?

Launch as the Binding Constraint

How does launch availability limit the space supply chain, and when will it ease?

Case Study: Amazon Leo, Producing Faster than It Can Launch

What does Amazon's constellation show about where the space supply chain is constrained?

Workforce: the Slowest Constraint to Fix

Does the space industry have the people it needs to build at the planned rate?

Qualification and Heritage: Why New Suppliers Take Years

Why can't buyers simply switch to a new supplier when an incumbent is late?

Export Control: ITAR, EAR and Europe's ITAR-Free Drive

How do export rules shape who can buy which parts, and are they easing?

Critical Minerals Policy and the November 2026 Cliff

What happens to space supply chains if China's suspension of its mineral export ban ends on 27 November 2026?

Tariffs and Trade

How do 2025–2026 US tariffs and trade measures affect the cost and flow of space parts?

The Geography of Supply and Single Points of Failure

Where are critical space parts made, and which single sites or firms could stop production?

The United States: Industrial Policy for the Space Supply Chain

What is the US government doing about space supply bottlenecks, and is it aimed at the right parts?

Europe: Non-Dependence, IRIS² and the Supply Base

Can Europe build its sovereign constellations from European parts?

China's Supply Chain: Scale and Constraints

How does China's space supply chain compare, and where are its bottlenecks?

Japan, India, the United Kingdom and Other Suppliers

What role do other countries play in the space supply chain, and can they add capacity?

Defence Demand: SDA Tranches and Golden Dome

How much pressure does defence space spending put on the supply chain?

Mega-Constellations: Starlink, Amazon Leo, Guowang and Qianfan

What do the four largest constellations demand from the supply chain, and how do they differ?

Direct-to-Device and Large Arrays

What do direct-to-device satellites demand from the supply chain?

The Bottleneck Scorecard: the Full Ranking

Which parts are the chokepoints, ranked, and how robust is the ranking?

Lessons from Other Industries

What can earlier supply crunches in semiconductors, aircraft engines and munitions teach the space industry?

Constellation Bill of Materials: Demand against Supply to 2030

Does component supply cover the satellites the world plans to build?

Lead-Time Schedule Risk: How One Part Sets the Launch Date

How should a programme plan around long-lead parts, and which part usually sets the launch date?

Mineral Shock: What a Germanium Spike Does to Solar Cell Cost

How much do germanium prices matter to the cost of space solar cells and satellites?

Capacity Build Needed to 2030

How much new capacity does the supply chain need by 2030, and what would it cost?

Financing Supplier Capacity

Why don't suppliers simply build more capacity, and who pays for it?

Consolidation and M&A in the Supply Chain

Who is buying whom, and what does consolidation mean for bottlenecks?

The Case For and Against a Supply Crunch

Is the space industry heading into a supply crunch, or is the bottleneck story overstated?

Vendor Map: Who Supplies What

Which firms supply each critical part, and how concentrated is each market?

Due-Diligence Checklist for a Supplier or Programme

What should a buyer, lender or investor check about supply risk before committing to a space programme or supplier?

Implications by Reader

What should each kind of reader do with the findings of this study?

Risk Register

What could go wrong in the space supply chain between 2026 and 2030, how likely is it and how much would it matter?

Signals to Watch and What Would Change Our View

Which events in the next 24 months will show whether bottlenecks are easing or tightening?

Twenty Questions This Study Answers

What are the short answers to the questions readers most often ask about the space supply chain?

Methodology and Sources

How was this study built, and how reliable are its figures?

Appendix A: Component Reference Table

Appendix B: Glossary

Appendix C: Setcoin Satellite Catalogue Dataset