Critical Minerals Policy and the November 2026 Cliff
What happens to space supply chains if China's suspension of its mineral export ban ends on 27 November 2026?
Chapter summary
the space industry would feel it first in gallium and germanium (solar cells, RF chips, infrared optics), then in antimony (infrared detectors, some electronics), with rare earths affecting motors, actuators and magnets.
Key takeaways
- 1
China suspended its December 2024 ban on gallium, germanium and antimony exports to the United States from 9 November 2025 until 27 November 2026, but kept licensing and its ban on military end users.
- 2
Chinese exports did not return to earlier levels.
- 3
Setcoin sets out three scenarios for the end of November: extension, lapse to the earlier ban, and broader licence refusals.
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