Capacity Build Needed to 2030
How much new capacity does the supply chain need by 2030, and what would it cost?
Chapter summary
less than the scale of the space economy suggests.
Key takeaways
- 1
Setcoin estimates that keeping merchant parts below about 75% utilisation in 2030 needs roughly a fourfold increase in merchant optical terminal output, two and a half times in rad-hard processors, about twice in III-V cells, reaction wheels and star trackers, plus continued solid motor and launch expansion already under way.
- 2
Excluding motors and launch, the capital needed is of the order of $2–5 billion over four years, plus qualification and workforce costs, a small sum against annual government space budgets but one no single buyer has an incentive to pay.
- 3
The barrier is coordination and time, not money.
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