Mineral Shock: What a Germanium Spike Does to Solar Cell Cost
How much do germanium prices matter to the cost of space solar cells and satellites?
Chapter summary
less than the headlines suggest, but not nothing.
Key takeaways
- 1
On Setcoin's assumptions (about 2.5 kg of germanium per kilowatt of III-V cells including slicing losses, 20% recovered through recycling, and a qualified cell price of $200 per watt before germanium), germanium at the 2024 average of $1,991/kg adds about $4 per watt, 2% of cell cost; at the October 2025 European price of $5,380/kg it adds about $11 per watt, 5%; and a further doubling to about $10,800/kg would add about $22 per watt, nearly 10%.
- 2
For a 5 kW satellite at $5,380/kg, germanium in the cells costs about $54,000.
- 3
The real risk is availability, which a price model cannot capture.
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