Constellation Bill of Materials: Demand against Supply to 2030
Does component supply cover the satellites the world plans to build?
Chapter summary
in 2026, mostly yes, with one clear exception.
Key takeaways
- 1
Setcoin's bill-of-materials model takes the satellites that buy merchant parts (about 1,300 a year in 2026), multiplies by parts per satellite and compares with estimated merchant capacity.
- 2
Optical terminals are over-subscribed (about 130% of capacity); rad-hard processors run at about 80%; III-V cells, reaction wheels and star trackers at about 65–70%.
- 3
If non-SpaceX satellites reach 3,000 a year by 2030, every part exceeds today's capacity, terminals by about three times.
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