Signals to Watch and What Would Change Our View
Which events in the next 24 months will show whether bottlenecks are easing or tightening?
Chapter summary
watch twelve signals.
Key takeaways
- 1
Three matter most in the next six months: China's decision on its mineral export suspension around 27 November 2026; the number of optical terminals per satellite at Space Development Agency launches; and New Glenn's return to flight with Amazon payloads.
- 2
Over two years, watch Starship opening to external satellites, qualification of new rad-hard processors and III-V capacity, solid motor deliveries from the new plants, and whether acquired suppliers keep selling to rivals.
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