Lunar, Cislunar and Settlement Economics: What the Moon Costs and Who Pays

NASA targets Artemis IV in early 2028 for the first crewed landing since 1972, after a crewed docking test with prototype landers in Earth orbit (Artemis III) in the third quarter of 2027. China targets a crewed landing before 2030. Setcoin puts the chance of a US landing by the end of 2028 at about 35% and by 2030 at about 75%.

In February 2026 NASA moved the first landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV. Artemis III became a crewed Orion flight in Earth orbit that docks with test versions of SpaceX's and Blue Origin's landers; NASA's October 2026 chart shows it in the third quarter of 2027.

On NASA's small commercial landers, about $0.7–1 million per kilogram of payload, based on task orders of $47–322 million per mission. Setcoin's delivery cost model gives a cost floor of about $99,000 per kilogram for a 3-tonne cargo lander and $3,800–13,200 for a Starship-class lander, depending on launch price.

NASA paused Gateway in March 2026 and its FY2027 budget request asks for no discretionary Gateway funding, moving the money to a lunar base. Hardware is being reused: HALO's power and avionics for three surface demonstrations, and the Power and Propulsion Element for a nuclear-electric Mars demonstrator.

Announced in March 2026: about $20 billion over seven years for a base near the lunar south pole, in three phases. Phase 1 (to 2029) is robotic, with about 25 launches and 21 landings; phase 2 (about 2029–2032) adds habitats and crews about twice a year; phase 3 (from 2032) aims at permanent presence with heavy deliveries of about 150 tonnes.

Most places on the Moon have about 354 hours of darkness at a stretch, below −170 °C. On Setcoin's model, keeping 5 kW running through it takes about 15 tonnes of solar arrays and batteries, or about 0.75 tonnes of fission reactor. That is why NASA chose the south pole, where some ridges are lit 80–90% of the time, and a reactor by 2030.

Published estimates range from about 100 million to 1 billion tonnes per pole, held in permanently shadowed craters. LCROSS measured about 5.6% water by mass in one impact plume, but local grades of 0.5–4% are more common, and no mission has yet drilled into ice-rich ground. The resource is real; minable deposits are unproven.

There are real buyers at small scale: one company, Interlune, reports about $500 million of purchase orders, including up to 10,000 litres a year from 2028 for quantum-computer cooling, at about $3,000 per litre (roughly $20 million per kilogram). Its target is 10 kg a year in the 2030s, which needs about a million tonnes of regolith a year.

On Setcoin's model, about $1 billion per person-year for an early four-person base with $300 million seats and six-month rotations, close to the ISS. About $540 million for an eight-person base in the mid-2030s, and about $40 million for a 100-person settlement with $20 million seats, two-year stays, 98% recycling and $2,000-per-kilogram cargo.

The first three chapters are open to everyone in full, with no account; the rest can be previewed. A space sector subscription, with a free trial, opens all 60 chapters, the five interactive models and their Excel files.