Signals to Watch and What Would Change Our View
Which events over the next 24–36 months will show whether the lunar economy is on track, and how would each change this study's conclusions?
Chapter summary
Watch, in order: Griffin-1's landing (late 2026), the Starship ship-to-ship propellant transfer, FY2027 appropriations for the Moon Base, New Glenn's return to flight and Blue Moon MK1, China's Chang'e 7 and the first tri-core Long March 10, the Artemis III docking test (Q3 2027), uncrewed Starship and Blue Moon landings (late 2027–early 2028), Lunar Reactor-1 contracts and the first measurements of ice in the ground.
Key takeaways
- 1
Positive results on the first three would raise confidence in a 2028 landing and a base on schedule; failures would push both by one to two years.
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