What does each layer of the lunar economy cost, who pays for it, and what would it take to go from short visits to a permanent settlement?
The short answer. the Moon is still a government market priced per kilogram. Small commercial landers deliver science payloads for roughly $0.7–1 million per kilogram, and about half of the landing attempts since 2023 have failed or tipped over. Heavy landers built for NASA's astronaut programme, SpaceX's Starship and Blue Origin's Blue Moon, could cut that to between $3,000 and $100,000 per kilogram, but only after orbital refuelling works, which had not been demonstrated by October 2026. In 2026 NASA changed course: Artemis II flew four astronauts around the Moon in April, the first landing moved to Artemis IV in 2028, the Gateway station was paused, and a $20 billion, seven-year Moon Base plan with a nuclear reactor by 2030 took its place. Water ice exists at the poles but is poorly mapped; making propellant on the Moon pays only above about 100 tonnes a year and while Earth delivery stays above about $3,000 per kilogram. A person-year on the Moon costs about $1 billion in an early four-person base and could fall towards tens of millions only with cheap reusable transport, life support that recycles 95% or more, and dozens of residents. China is the pacing competitor and intends to land crew before 2030.
Ten findings
| # | Finding | Chapter |
|---|
| 1 | NASA's 2026 restructuring turned Artemis from a series of flag-planting flights into an infrastructure programme: Gateway paused, a $20B Moon Base, fission power by 2030 | Chapter 5, Chapter 29 |
| 2 | The first crewed landing is now Artemis IV, targeted for early 2028; Artemis III (Q3 2027) docks with prototype landers in Earth orbit | Chapter 5, Chapter 8 |
| 3 | Both crewed landers depend on cryogenic refuelling in orbit, which had not been tried at scale by October 2026; it is the single largest schedule risk | Chapter 9 |
| 4 | Commercial landers have a mixed record: of six commercial landing attempts since 2023, one full success, two that landed on their side or tilted, three failures | Chapter 12, Chapter 13 |
| 5 | A kilogram on the Moon costs about $0.7–1M on today's small landers; failures roughly double the effective price | Chapter 16 |
| 6 | The cost stack is dominated by the lander, not the rocket; launch is about a tenth of a small mission and over half of a heavy one | Chapter 17, Chapter 18 |
| 7 | The lunar night (up to 354 hours) decides surface architecture: batteries for a 5 kW base at the equator weigh about 15 t; a reactor about 0.75 t | Chapter 24, Chapter 25 |
| 8 | Local propellant from ice pays only at scale (about 100 t a year or more) and only while Earth delivery stays above about $3,000 per kilogram | Chapter 33, Chapter 34 |
| 9 | Helium-3 has real buyers (about $500M of purchase orders reported by one company) but at quantum-computing scale, not fusion scale | Chapter 32 |
| 10 | A permanent settlement is a transport and closure problem: about $1B per person-year today, about $40M at 100 residents with $2,000/kg delivery and 98% recycling | Chapter 50, Chapter 52 |
Key numbers
| Measure | Value | Source |
|---|
| Artemis II | Launched 1 Apr 2026; splashdown 10 Apr 2026 | NASA, AP |
| First crewed landing | Artemis IV, early 2028 (target) | NASA, Feb and Oct 2026 |
| NASA FY2027 request | $18.8B, of which Artemis $8.5B | NASA budget request |
| Moon Base plan | ~$20B over seven years | NASA, Mar 2026 |
| Moon Base lander awards, June 2026 | ~$590M for four deliveries in late 2028 | NASA |
| SLS/Orion cost per launch | ~$4.1B (Artemis I–IV) | NASA OIG, 2021 |
| Small lander price | ~$0.7–1M per kg delivered (Setcoin calculation) | Chapter 16 |
| Lunar night | up to ~354 hours | Physical constant |
| Artemis Accords signatories | 76 (Sep 2026) | NASA |
| China crewed landing target | before 2030 | CMSA |
What each layer costs
| Layer | What is bought | Indicative cost (Setcoin calculation or public figure) | Chapter |
|---|
| Crew transport | SLS and Orion, one launch | ~$4.1B per launch (OIG) | Chapter 6 |
| Crewed lander | Starship HLS, Blue Moon | $4.0B and $3.4B NASA contracts (development plus missions) | Chapter 8 |
| Small cargo | CLPS lander, ~100–150 kg of payload | $80–150M per mission | Chapter 16 |
| Heavy cargo | Starship or Blue Moon cargo lander, 3–100 t | ~$3,000–100,000 per kg (Setcoin model) | Chapter 17 |
| Communications | Relay satellites and services | Up to $4.82B NASA relay contract (ceiling, to 2034) | Chapter 23 |
| Power | Reactor of ~40–100 kWe | Development in the low billions (Setcoin estimate) | Chapter 26 |
| Mobility | Unpressurised crew rovers | ~$220M per company for two LTV builders | Chapter 27 |
| Base | Habitats, power, rovers, landings | ~$20B over seven years | Chapter 29 |
Who pays
| Payer | Share today (Setcoin judgement) | What they buy |
|---|
| NASA | Most of Western spending | Crew, landers, cargo, communications, power, rovers |
| China (CNSA, CMSA) | Most of the rest | Chang'e robotic missions, Mengzhou, Lanyue |
| ESA and national agencies | Small but growing | Argonaut, Moonlight, astronaut seats, instruments |
| JAXA, ISRO, others | Small | Landers, rovers, sample return |
| Private buyers | Very small | Helium-3 purchase orders, memorials, media, technology tests |
The interactive models
| Model | Question it answers | Chapter |
|---|
| Delivery cost stack | What does a kilogram on the surface cost on each type of lander? | Chapter 17 |
| Commercial lander portfolio | How much mass does a year of landings deliver once failures are counted? | Chapter 16 |
| Night power | Batteries or a reactor: what keeps a base alive through the night? | Chapter 24 |
| ISRU break-even | When does propellant made on the Moon beat propellant shipped from Earth? | Chapter 34 |
| Person-year cost | What does one person living on the Moon for a year cost? | Chapter 50 |
How the study is organised
| Part | Chapters | Content |
|---|
| I. Why the Moon and what it costs | 2–11 | Method, policy, history, Artemis, SLS and Orion, landers, refuelling, Gateway, budgets |
| II. Getting cargo there | 12–22 | Commercial lander record, failures, prices, cost stack, heavy cargo, procurement, cislunar transport |
| III. Working on the surface | 23–29 | Communications, night, power, reactors, rovers, environment, the Moon Base plan |
| IV. Resources and law | 30–36 | Water ice, oxygen and metals, helium-3, propellant economics, law, safety zones |
| V. Demand and players | 37–46 | Science and commercial demand, companies, China, ILRS, the race, Europe, Asia, others |
| VI. From outpost to settlement | 47–54 | Habitats, life support, construction, person-year cost, health, scenarios, funding, Mars |
| VII. Synthesis | 55–60 | Implications, checklist, risks, signals, questions, method |
Reading paths
| Reader | Suggested path |
|---|
| Investor or lender looking at a lunar company | 1, 12–17, 20, 21, 39, 40, 56, 57 |
| Policy maker or agency planner | 1, 3, 5, 11, 29, 35, 41–43 |
| Engineer or programme manager | 8, 9, 17, 18, 24–28, 33, 34 |
| Corporate strategist outside space | 1, 30–32, 37, 38, 50, 52 |
| Anyone short of time | 1, 7, 29, 50, 58 |
What this study does not do
It does not value companies, forecast share prices or recommend securities. Where a company is named, it is because it holds a public contract or has flown a mission. Dates after 22 October 2026 are plans. Figures labelled "Setcoin calculation" show their arithmetic in the chapter where they appear.
