How does this study turn a lunar mission, a base or a settlement into numbers that can be compared?
The short answer. everything on the Moon is priced per kilogram delivered and per hour survived. Setcoin breaks each activity into a stack of layers (launch from Earth, transfer to the Moon, landing, surface operations, communications, power and crew), attaches a public price or a labelled estimate to each layer, and then tests the result with five interactive models. Where a figure is a company target or a plan, it is labelled as such; where the arithmetic is Setcoin's, the inputs are shown.
The five layers
| Layer | What it covers | How it is priced | Main evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | Getting mass to low Earth orbit or onto a trajectory to the Moon | Dollars per kilogram to orbit | Launch contracts, S5 Launch study |
| Transfer and landing | Leaving Earth orbit, entering lunar orbit, descending | Propellant ratio (the "gear ratio") and lander hardware | Rocket equation, lander contracts |
| Surface operations | Keeping hardware alive and productive on the surface | Power, thermal control, communications, mobility | NASA contracts, engineering values |
| Crew | Getting people there, keeping them alive, bringing them back | Seats, consumables, habitat | SLS and Orion audits, life-support data |
| Resources | Making propellant, oxygen or materials locally | Plant mass, output, life | Published ISRU studies, Setcoin model |
Units used throughout
| Unit | Meaning | Why it is used |
|---|---|---|
| $ per kg landed | Total mission cost divided by useful payload on the surface | The common currency of lunar logistics |
| Gear ratio | Kilograms needed in low Earth orbit for each kilogram landed | Shows how propulsion choices multiply launch cost |
| kWh per night | Energy stored to survive one lunar night | Sizes batteries or reactors |
| Person-year | One person living on the surface for one year | Compares sorties, bases and settlements |
| t per year | Tonnes of propellant or water produced locally | Tests whether local resources pay |
Five models
Each model is a calculator in the reader with an Excel copy. Defaults come from the chapter in which the model sits; every input names its source or says that it is the reader's assumption.
| Model | Inputs | Output | Chapter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery cost stack | Payload, lander dry mass, delta-v, engine efficiency, launch price, lander cost, reuse | $ per kg landed | Chapter 17 |
| Commercial lander portfolio | Missions a year, success rate, payload, price | Expected mass delivered, effective $ per kg | Chapter 16 |
| Night power | Power demand, hours of darkness, battery and reactor mass | Mass and delivery cost for each option | Chapter 24 |
| ISRU break-even | Plant output, mass, cost, life, delivery price | Cost of local propellant against shipped propellant | Chapter 34 |
| Person-year | Crew, rotation, seat price, recycling, delivery price, base cost | $ per person-year | Chapter 50 |
Evidence rules
Four kinds of evidence are used, in this order of weight:
1. Primary public records: NASA budget documents, contract announcements, Inspector General and GAO reports, mission records.
2. Consistent reporting from at least two outlets, used when primary documents are not public (for example, schedule charts shown at conferences).
3. Company statements, used for targets and labelled "company target" or "as reported".
4. Setcoin calculations and estimates, labelled, with the arithmetic shown.
Physical constants and engineering reference values (delta-v between orbits, engine efficiency, length of the lunar night, daily consumables per person) come from standard NASA references and textbooks. They are not controversial, but small changes in them move the results, which is why the models let the reader change them.
What counts as a landing
The study counts a landing attempt when a spacecraft began powered descent or was destroyed on the way to the surface after leaving Earth orbit. A success is a soft landing in an upright attitude followed by surface operations. A partial success is a landing that tipped or fell on its side but returned some data. Peregrine, which never reached the Moon because of a propellant leak, is counted as a failed mission rather than a failed landing.
Time horizon
The study looks at three horizons:
| Horizon | Years | Question |
|---|---|---|
| Near | 2026–2030 | Do landers, refuelling and the first base elements work? |
| Middle | 2030–2040 | Does a permanent base with routine crew rotation become affordable? |
| Far | 2040–2060 | Could a settlement of dozens to hundreds of people exist, and who would pay? |
The far horizon is speculative. The study treats it as a set of conditions to be met rather than a forecast: for each scenario it states what would have to be true about transport price, recycling and demand.
Limits
Lunar economics rests on a small number of missions. Costs of government programmes are partly hidden in shared budgets; commercial lander prices include development subsidies; and many settlement cost studies are decades old. Ranges are wide and the study says so. The models are tools for testing assumptions, not forecasts.