Settlement Scenarios, 2040–2060
What could human presence on the Moon look like by 2040, 2050 and 2060, and what would have to be true for each scenario?
Chapter summary
Setcoin sets out four scenarios.
Key takeaways
- 1
In "Outpost" (the most likely by 2040), a base hosts 4–8 people in rotation, funded by governments at about the cost of today's space station.
- 2
In "Research town" (2040s), 20–50 people live at one or two sites, with local oxygen and water and a reactor grid; it needs seats under $50 million and delivery under $5,000 per kilogram.
- 3
In "Settlement" (2050s), 100–500 residents, some staying for years, with local food and construction; it needs seats around $10–20 million and delivery around $1,000–2,000 per kilogram. "Stall" is the downside: a few landings, then budgets move elsewhere, as after Apollo.
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