The Race: Who Lands Crew First, and Does It Matter?
Will the United States or China land astronauts first in this era, and what difference would it make?
Chapter summary
As of October 2026 the US target is an Artemis IV landing in early 2028, with up to two landings that year; China's target is before 2030.
Key takeaways
- 1
The US path depends on orbital refuelling for Starship or Blue Moon, which had not been demonstrated; China's depends on the first flight of a three-core Long March 10 and its Mengzhou and Lanyue spacecraft.
- 2
Setcoin's estimate, based on the two critical paths, is that the US lands first with a probability of roughly 55–65%, with both most likely in 2028–2030.
- 3
Being first matters for prestige and for site selection near the south pole; being able to stay matters more for the economy.
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