39 µm
Uniform pembrolizumab crystals grown in orbit
Ground controls: 13 and 102 µm populations (Merck, 2019)
Setcoin Intelligence · Space Infrastructure · In-Space Manufacturing · Updated October 2026
In-Space Manufacturing and Microgravity Biotech: Products, Platforms and Economics
Which products are actually better made in microgravity, what does it cost to make and return a kilogram, and is demand large enough to support capsules and stations? Eighty-nine chapters on the physics, thirteen products, the ISS and its successors, free-flying capsules, regulation of space-made medicines and the economics, built on peer-reviewed results, regulators' records and Setcoin's capsule catalogue analysis.
Open to everyone: the first 3 chapters in full, with exhibits and models; a free account adds their Excel models. Space subscription: all 92 chapters, every model and Excel file, 7-day free trial, then €199 a month. Already a reader? Sign in.
- Chapters
- 89 + 3 appendices · 180 min
- Interactive Models
- 5, with Excel
- Data
- Capsule catalogue to 23 Oct 2026; NASA; MHRA; filings
- Figures As Of
- 26 October 2026
- 1,000+
- ISS payloads since 2011
- ~$2.7M
- Cost per usable kg returned (Setcoin)
- 0
- Space-made medicines approved
- 180 min
- Read, 89 chapters
In short
Microgravity helps a short list of products, and the best-proven business is not a product at all. After more than 1,000 sponsored ISS payloads, the clearest commercial outcome is insight replicated on Earth: Merck's space-grown pembrolizumab crystals informed a subcutaneous Keytruda approved in September 2025, made on the ground. Varda has returned capsules repeatedly since 2024 and raised about $598 million, much of its flown work being hypersonic re-entry tests for the US military. On Setcoin's arithmetic a capsule mission costs about $8 million, or about $2.7 million per usable kilogram, which only products such as biologic crystals, implant films and ZBLAN fibre can bear. No regulator has approved a space-made medicine; the UK set out a pathway in March 2026.
01 · The answer
Microgravity helps a few products. The proven business is the trip home.
In orbit, convection and sedimentation almost vanish. Crystals grow more uniformly, three-dimensional cell cultures behave differently and some glasses resist crystallising. These effects are real and documented, but they help only processes limited by gravity, and ground techniques keep catching up.
The clearest commercial result so far is knowledge. Merck grew pembrolizumab crystals on the ISS as a uniform 39-micrometre population, against two sizes on the ground, and used the insight in a subcutaneous Keytruda the FDA approved in September 2025. The medicine is made on Earth. After more than 1,000 ISS National Lab payloads, no product made in orbit is sold at scale.
Free-flying capsules have changed access. Varda has landed capsules repeatedly since February 2024, built its own bus and heat shield and raised about $598 million. Much of its flown work has been hypersonic re-entry testing for the US military, the one service in Setcoin's scorecard with proven, repeat demand.
On Setcoin's reference, a capsule mission costs about $8.1 million and returns about 5 kg, roughly $2.7 million per usable kilogram. Biologic crystals, implant films such as artificial retinas and ZBLAN fibre are worth more than that per kilogram; wafers and metals are not. No regulator has approved a medicine made partly in orbit; the UK set out a pathway in March 2026.
The study, chapter by chapter
89 chapters + 3 appendices · 180 min · updated 2026-10-26
- Executive Summary and Reading Guide
- What In-Space Manufacturing Is, and Is Not
- Who Buys: a Map of Demand
- The Physics of Microgravity Advantage
- Microgravity Quality: Not All Orbits Are Equally Quiet
- Fifty Years of Trying: from Skylab to Capsules
- Case Study: The 1980s Electrophoresis Venture
- The Evidence Base: What Fifteen Years of ISS Research Shows
- A Mission from Launch to Laboratory
- Method: How Setcoin Assesses a Microgravity Product
- Reading a Microgravity Claim: a Field Guide
- Protein Crystals for Structure
- Case Study: JAXA's Protein Crystallisation Programme
- Formulation Insight: the Pembrolizumab Case
- Case Study: Lilly, Insulin and Automated Crystallisation
- Small-Molecule Polymorphs Made in Orbit
- Crystal Physics in Detail: Nucleation, Growth and Size Distribution
- Biologics: Could Drug Substance Be Made in Orbit?
- Cell and Gene Therapies: Is There a Microgravity Angle?
- Organoids and Disease Models
- Ageing, Bone and Muscle Models
- Stem Cells and Regenerative Medicine
- The Clinical Landscape for Retinal Implants
- Bioprinting Tissues
- Artificial Retinas and Implant Films
- Other Implants and Biomaterials
- Semiconductors and Crystals
- Optical Fibre: ZBLAN
- Beyond ZBLAN: Other Photonic and Quantum Materials
- Alloys, Glasses and Other Materials
- Containerless Processing and Levitation
- Making Parts for Use in Space
- The Readiness Scorecard: the Full Ranking
- Five Comparisons That Explain the Ranking
- The ISS as a Factory
- Facility Providers: the Businesses That Already Work
- Commercial Stations as Manufacturing Platforms
- After the ISS: the Transition Year by Year
- Free-Flying Capsules: the New Platform
- Case Study: Varda Space Industries
- Inside a Capsule: Bus, Heat Shield and Recovery
- Other Capsules: Europe, the US and Japan
- Capsule Designs Compared
- China's Recoverable Satellites
- Return Logistics: Landing, Recovery and Time to Laboratory
- Capsule Supply Chain
- Re-Entry Licensing
- Launch for Manufacturing Missions
- Landing Ranges and Host Countries
- Automation and Process Control in Orbit
- Cost per Kilogram Made and Returned
- Unit Economics of a Capsule Company
- Dose Arithmetic: How Many Capsules Would a Medicine Need?
- Reuse Economics: Flying the Same Capsule Again
- Platform Choice: Station or Capsule?
- The Value-per-Kilogram Ladder
- Materials Break-Even: Fibre, Wafers and Films
- Pricing Models: Missions, Slots, Royalties and Data
- Customer Economics: What a Pharma Company Pays and Gains
- Partnering Models: Consortia and Shared Missions
- Capital and Government Funding
- Defence Demand: the Capsule as a Hypersonic Test Bed
- NASA as Anchor Customer After 2030
- Market Size: Reconciling the Forecasts
- Insurance and Liability
- Regulating Space-Made Medicines: the FDA and Manufacturing Rules
- Skills and Workforce for Orbital Manufacturing
- The United Kingdom's Pathway for Space-Made Medicines
- Intellectual Property and Data in Orbit
- The European Union: Medicines Law and Space
- Europe's Programmes and Companies
- Export Controls and Cross-Border Return
- Asia: Japan, China and India
- United States Policy and Programmes
- Where Value Accrues: Platforms, Processes or Products?
- Scenarios to 2035
- Capsule Demand to 2035
- What Would Have to Be True
- A Research Agenda: What the Next Missions Should Test
- The Case For and Against
- What a Pharma Campaign Looks Like
- Lessons from Other Industries
- Three Futures, Told as 2035 Snapshots
- Due-Diligence Checklist
- Implications by Reader
- Risk Register
- Signals to Watch
- Twenty Questions This Study Answers
- Methodology and Sources
- Appendix A: Product Reference Table
- Appendix B: Glossary
- Appendix C: Setcoin Capsule and Platform Dataset
02 · The evidence
Four Numbers Behind the Verdict
11.9 km
ZBLAN fibre drawn on the ISS in a month
Orders reported at ~$1,000 a metre; glass purity still limits loss
$40,000
NASA price to bring 1 kg back from the ISS
Plus $20,000/kg up and $130,000 per crew hour (2021 list)
~$598M
Raised by Varda, the leading capsule company
Including a $251M Series D in September 2026
03 · The scorecard
Thirteen Products and Services, Ranked
Setcoin scores each on evidence of microgravity advantage, value per kilogram, difficulty of replicating it on Earth, regulatory path and demand that could fill flights, weighted 25/20/25/15/15 and scaled to 100.
Readiness score, 0–100: re-entry testing leads; retina films are the top product
score, 0–100
Setcoin scorecard, October 2026; evidence in the product chapters.
Try the model
What does a kilogram cost to bring home?
Start from Setcoin's reference mission: a 300 kg spacecraft on a rideshare, $4 million of bus and capsule, $2 million of operations and recovery, 5 kg of product of which 60% is usable. Return more product, reuse the hardware or lose half the batch, and compare the result with what real products are worth per kilogram.
Interactive model
Cost per kilogram returned: what does a capsule mission cost per usable kg?
What does a free-flying capsule mission cost, per kilogram returned and per usable kilogram, and which products can bear it?
Scenarios
$8.1MMission cost
$1.62MCost per kg returned
$2.70MCost per usable kg
25.9%Launch share of mission
Pembrolizumab at US list Above cost
ZBLAN fibre at $1,000/m Above cost
Your cost per usable kg
GaN substrates Below cost
SiC substrates Below cost
$M per kg (log scale): product value against your cost per usable kg
Show the calculation table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Launch ($M) | 2.1 |
| Bus and capsule ($M) | 4 |
| Operations, licensing, recovery ($M) | 2 |
| Mission cost ($M) | 8.1 |
| Product returned (kg) | 5 |
| Usable (kg) | 3 |
| Cost per kg returned ($M) | 1.62 |
| Cost per usable kg ($M) | 2.7 |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Cost per usable kg” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Product returned
Share of product usable
Spacecraft bus and capsule
Spacecraft mass at launch
Operations, licensing and recovery
Rideshare price per additional kg
Rideshare price for the first 50 kg
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
04 · Three findings
Where the Value Really Is
Mission records from Setcoin's catalogue analysis and company statements; arithmetic as labelled in the study.
Made on Earth
Insight, not production
Pembrolizumab's space crystals informed a subcutaneous product made on the ground. For pharma, orbit is mostly a laboratory: valuable, repeatable, but not a factory.
Proven demand: 94
The capsule is the product
Defence buys re-entry flights to test materials and guidance at hypersonic speed. That demand gives capsule companies cadence while manufacturing customers develop.
Top product: 72
High value, low mass wins
Implant films and specialist fibre are worth millions per kilogram and hard to copy on Earth. Wafers and alloys are not, however good the physics.
Try the model
How many capsules would a medicine need?
A blockbuster antibody at 200 mg a dose needs about 514 kg of drug a year. If a tenth needed a step in orbit, that is about ten capsule missions and about $320 per dose. Change the dose, the share or the capsule size, or try a rare-disease drug or space-grown seeds.
Interactive model
Dose arithmetic: how many capsules would a medicine need?
If part of a medicine’s production needed a step in orbit, how many missions a year would it take and what would they add to each dose?
Scenarios
514 kgDrug substance a year
10Capsule missions a year
$324Added cost per dose from the space share
2.8%Share of price per dose
1% space step
5% space step
10% space step
25% space step
50% space step
100% space step
Capsule missions a year, by share of production needing a space step
Show the calculation table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Doses a year (M) | 2.57 |
| Drug per dose (mg) | 200 |
| Drug substance (kg a year) | 514 |
| Space-processed (kg a year) | 51.4 |
| Missions a year | 10.28 |
| Space cost ($M a year) | 83.3 |
| Doses from space share (M) | 0.257 |
| Added cost per dose ($) | 324 |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Capsule missions a year” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Product per capsule
Drug per dose
Share of production needing a space step
Doses a year
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
05 · Geography
Who Builds, Lands and Buys
Capsule builders and landing ranges, product and process companies, and the customers and agencies behind them. Ringed: single points of reliance in October 2026. Switch between world, North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific.
Single point of reliance (Setcoin) · hover or tap a site for detail
All 17 sites, by category
Capsule builders and landing ranges
- Varda Space Industries (El Segundo, CA) ◎ — Only routine Western commercial capsule operator
- Koonibba Test Range (South Australia) ◎ — Landing range for Varda since 2025
- Utah Test and Training Range — First commercial capsule landing on US soil (Feb 2024)
- Inversion Space (Torrance, CA) — Ray in orbit; Arc in development
- ATMOS Space Cargo (Germany) — Phoenix capsules; €25.7M (Apr 2026)
- The Exploration Company (Germany/France) — Nyx; ESA ISS cargo by mid-2029
- Space Forge (Cardiff) — ForgeStar-1 in orbit; Pridwen shield
- ElevationSpace (Sendai) — ELS-R Aoba planned
- Jiuquan (China) — Shijian-19 launch site; ~500 kg return
Product and process companies
- LambdaVision (Connecticut) — Artificial retina films
- Flawless Photonics (Luxembourg) — ZBLAN fibre drawn on ISS
- Redwire (Jacksonville, FL) — PIL-BOX, BioFabrication Facility
Customers and agencies
- Merck (Rahway, NJ) — Pembrolizumab crystallisation
- Eli Lilly (Indianapolis) — Small-molecule and insulin crystals
- JAXA (Tsukuba) — Two-thirds of ISS protein crystal growth
- AFRL (Ohio) — Re-entry test payloads on capsules
- MHRA and UK Space Agency (London) — First pathway for space-made medicines
Company statements, agencies and reporting; examples, not a complete list.
Try the model
Station or capsule?
At NASA's list prices, a 50 kg experiment returning 10 kg with 10 crew hours costs about $3.2 million on the ISS; a quarter share of a capsule costs about $2.0 million. Mark the process as needing crew and capsules drop out.
Interactive model
Platform choice: station or capsule?
For an experiment or production run, which is cheaper: the ISS or a commercial station at list prices, a shared capsule or a dedicated one?
Scenarios
Shared capsule (25%)Cheapest route
$2.0MIts cost
40.6%ISS crew time share of ISS cost
39.5%Capsule share that matches ISS cost
ISS at NASA list prices
Commercial station
Shared capsule (25%)
Dedicated capsule
$M per experiment or run, by route (capsules need a fully automated process)
Show the calculation table
| Route | Cost ($M) | Possible |
|---|---|---|
| ISS at NASA list prices | 3.2 | Yes |
| Commercial station | 3.2 | Yes |
| Shared capsule (25%) | 2.02 | Yes |
| Dedicated capsule | 8.1 | Yes |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Its cost” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Share of capsule used
Capsule mission cost
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
06 · Signals to watch
The Next Three Years
- NET Q1 2027Haven-1 fliesThe first commercial station hardware in orbit, ahead of the ISS's retirement at the end of 2030.
- Spring 2027NASA commercial station awardsWhether research and manufacturing capacity is bought after the ISS.
- 2027A second capsule company returns routinelySupply beyond one provider is the condition for production contracts.
- 2027–2029First-in-human trial with an orbit-made productMost likely artificial retina films; a precedent for every medical product.
07 · Check it yourself
Test This Study Against the Live Record
Every figure in this study comes from the public record. These Setcoin services let you check the companies, contracts and counterparties behind it yourself.
Setcoin Sectors
Who is being paid to build
Cited R&D awards and prime contracts in space and aerospace, by organisation and readiness gate, from public procurement and grant records.
Open the space sector record →Setcoin for Venture
Check a company's claims
A company's round, filings and statements checked against the public record, to the same standard as this study.
Check a company →Setcoin Verify
Know who you are signing with
Registrations, ownership, sanctions listings and court records on a counterparty, cross-referenced and scored in one report the same day.
See what Verify checks →08 · The full study
What's Inside
Foundations and products
- Physics of microgravity and the quality of different platforms
- Fifty years of trying; the ISS evidence base; how to read a claim
- Proteins, formulations, polymorphs and biologics
- Organoids, stem cells, bioprinting, retinas and implants
- Semiconductors, ZBLAN and other optical materials, alloys, parts for space
Platforms and economics
- The ISS, its retirement and commercial stations
- Free-flying capsules: Varda, Europe, the US, Japan and China
- Recovery, landing ranges, licensing, launch, automation
- Cost per kg, dose arithmetic, platform choice, materials break-even, reuse
Regulation and outlook
- FDA, UK and EU rules for space-made medicines
- Capital, defence demand and the market size
- Scenarios, capsule demand and the six gates
- Checklist, risk register, signals and twenty questions answered
Ranking
Readiness score
Thirteen products and services scored on evidence, value per kilogram, replication risk, regulatory path and demand, with weights you can change.
Economics
Cost per kilogram returned
Launch, capsule, operations and the share of product that is usable, turned into cost per usable kilogram against the value of real products.
Demand
Dose arithmetic
How many capsule missions a medicine would need if part of its production moved to orbit, and what that adds to each dose.
Free data tools
Check the live record yourself
The study's findings move with launches, contracts and filings. These free Setcoin tools show the current public record behind them, refreshed from the catalogues and procurement registers.
Free tool
Space Contracts & Tender Radar
607 new US federal space awards and European tenders from the last twelve months, by part or service bought, buyer, country and stage, with the tenders still open.
See which agencies are buying space R&D, payloads and platforms, and which tenders are open.
Open the radar →Free tool
Space Claim Check
Type an operator’s name and see what the public satellite catalogues record: satellites launched, in orbit, operating and re-entered. The full check adds US contracts, SBIR awards, UK and NOAA licences and list screening.
Check a capsule or platform company’s flight record in the catalogues before relying on its stated missions.
Check an operator →Questions
Questions About the Study, Answered
What is in-space manufacturing?
Making things in orbit, either for use on Earth (drug crystals, implant films, optical fibre) or for use in space (printed parts), and using orbit as a laboratory whose results are applied on Earth. The economics differ: products for Earth must pay for both the trip up and the trip home.
Is anything manufactured in space and sold on Earth today?
Only small lots. Flawless Photonics drew 11.9 km of ZBLAN fibre on the ISS in a month in 2024 and has reported orders at about $1,000 a metre. No product made in orbit is sold at scale, and no regulator has approved a medicine with a manufacturing step in orbit.
Did the space station help create subcutaneous Keytruda?
ISS experiments by Merck grew pembrolizumab as a uniform crystal population about 39 micrometres across, informing a subcutaneous formulation approved by the FDA in September 2025. The approved product is made on Earth; the space work contributed knowledge, not manufacturing.
What does it cost to make and return a kilogram from orbit?
On Setcoin's reference mission, about $8.1 million for a 300 kg capsule spacecraft returning 5 kg of product, or about $1.6 million per kilogram returned and $2.7 million per usable kilogram. NASA's ISS list price for returning cargo is $40,000 per kilogram, plus $20,000 per kilogram up and $130,000 per crew hour.
What does Varda Space Industries do?
Varda flies small spacecraft on rideshare launches that process payloads in orbit and return them in capsules. It has landed capsules repeatedly since February 2024, in Utah and at Australia's Koonibba range, flown many US Air Force Research Laboratory re-entry test payloads and raised about $598 million, including a $251 million Series D in September 2026.
Which products are most likely to succeed?
Setcoin's readiness scorecard ranks hypersonic re-entry test flights first (94 of 100), then artificial retina films (72), organoid disease models (70) and ZBLAN fibre (69). Making biologic drug substance in orbit ranks last (42), because a blockbuster antibody needs hundreds of kilograms a year and ground production works.
Can medicines be manufactured in space?
Not at the scale needed for most medicines. A space step could fit a small, high-value part of a process, such as crystals or seeds, ideally a stable intermediate tested on Earth. No regulator has approved one; the UK's medicines and space regulators set out a supportive pathway in March 2026.
What happens to space research when the ISS retires?
NASA plans to retire the ISS at the end of 2030. Research is expected to move to commercial stations, the first of which, Vast's Haven-1, is targeted for no earlier than early 2027, and to free-flying capsules. NASA's commercial station awards are expected in spring 2027.
How big is the in-space manufacturing market?
Published 2026 estimates range from about $1.4 billion to $7.6 billion because definitions differ. Setcoin's narrow market, products and processing for Earth plus re-entry testing, is a few hundred million dollars in 2026 and about $1–3 billion by 2035 in the base case.
How do I read the full study?
The first three chapters are open to everyone in full, with no account; the rest can be previewed. A space sector subscription, with a free trial, opens all 89 chapters, the five interactive models and their Excel files.
Setcoin Research analyses public markets, filings and programmes for information only. It is not investment advice and does not recommend any security.
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