The Case For and Against
Is in-space manufacturing about to become an industry, or is it repeating the 1980s?
Chapter summary
both views have evidence.
Key takeaways
- 1
The case for rests on routine capsule returns, cheap rideshare launch, private capital, a few high-value products that clear the cost bar and regulators starting to engage.
- 2
The case against rests on the history of ground methods catching up, the absence of any product sold at scale, the dependence on defence testing for revenue, and the risk that the ISS retires before commercial stations are ready.
- 3
Setcoin's view: a niche industry will form, built first on services and research, with two or three products by 2035; a mass manufacturing industry will not.
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