637
Starlink direct-to-cell satellites in orbit
663 launched on 52 launch days; 26 re-entered; ~357 km
Setcoin Intelligence · Space Infrastructure · Direct-to-Device · Updated October 2026
Satellites to Phones: Direct-to-Device Connectivity, Spectrum and Economics
How much spectrum and how many satellites does direct-to-device need, who will provide it, and what can it earn? Fifty-five chapters on the physics, the providers, spectrum and its price, operator economics, Europe and emerging markets, emergencies, IoT and scenarios to 2035, built on regulatory filings and Setcoin's own satellite-catalogue analysis.
Open to everyone: the first 3 chapters in full, with exhibits and models; a free account adds their Excel models. Space subscription: all 58 chapters, every model and Excel file, 7-day free trial, then €199 a month. Already a reader? Sign in.
- Chapters
- 55 + 3 appendices · 180 min
- Interactive Models
- 5, with Excel
- Data
- Satellite catalogue to 18 Oct 2026; FCC; filings
- Figures As Of
- 22 October 2026
- 637
- Starlink direct-to-cell satellites in orbit
- 15,000
- Next-generation satellites authorised
- ~$0.8
- Per MHz-pop paid for 65 MHz
- 180 min
- Read, 55 chapters
In short
Direct-to-device is a coverage product today: messaging, emergency alerts and light data outdoors, used occasionally and priced at zero to about $10 a month. SpaceX has 637 direct-to-cell satellites in orbit and about 7.4 million devices a month on its mobile services, but satellite traffic is about 0.0002% of T-Mobile's network. D2D becomes a capacity product only with very large antennas and much more spectrum, and the industry is buying both: SpaceX paid about $17 billion for 65 MHz and won approval for 15,000 satellites; Amazon is buying Globalstar for about $11.6 billion. Setcoin's base case is about $9 billion of D2D revenue in 2030 and $20 billion in 2035, concentrated among a few providers.
01 · The answer
A coverage product racing to become a capacity product
Ordinary phones can now talk to satellites. SpaceX launched 663 direct-to-cell satellites between January 2024 and June 2025, of which 637 remain in orbit (Setcoin catalogue analysis), and reports about 7.4 million devices a month on its mobile services in about 30 countries. T-Mobile sells the service for about $10 a month; Apple offers emergency messaging free on every iPhone since 2022.
Use is real but light. T-Mobile said in May 2026 that satellite traffic was about 0.0002% of its network, mostly in national parks. Physics explains why: a phone's antenna and power are fixed, so capacity depends on the satellite's antenna area and the spectrum in each beam. First-generation beams carry a few megabits per second shared over tens of kilometres.
The industry is buying its way out of that limit. SpaceX paid about $17 billion for 65 MHz of EchoStar spectrum, about $0.8 per MHz-pop, close to terrestrial values, and on 6 October 2026 won FCC approval for 15,000 next-generation D2D satellites. AST SpaceMobile flies arrays of 223 m². Amazon is buying Globalstar, and with it Apple's satellite partner, for about $11.6 billion.
Setcoin's base case puts D2D revenue at about $9 billion in 2030 and $20 billion in 2035, with SpaceX taking about 45% by 2035. The largest uncertainty is whether SpaceX becomes a mobile operator in its own right; the next decisions are Starship's cadence, phone support for new bands, WRC-27 in November 2027 and Europe's 2 GHz selection.
The study, chapter by chapter
55 chapters + 3 appendices · 180 min · updated 2026-10-22
- Executive Summary and Reading Guide
- What Direct-to-Device Is, and Is Not
- From Satellite Phones to Smartphones: A Short History
- The Physics: Why Phones and Satellites Struggle to Talk
- How a Phone Talks to a Satellite: Doppler, Delay and Handover
- Capacity: Why D2D Is Coverage, Not a Network Replacement
- Measuring Usage: What the Evidence Shows
- The Market Today: Who Offers What
- One Beam, Worked Through: From Antenna to Revenue
- Starlink Direct to Cell: The First Generation
- The Direct-to-Cell Network in Numbers: Setcoin's Satellite Catalogue Analysis
- SpaceX's Spectrum Strategy and the 15,000-Satellite System
- AST SpaceMobile: Big Satellites, Many Operators
- Financing a Purpose-Built Constellation: AST SpaceMobile's Accounts
- Capital Flows into Direct-to-Device, 2022–2026
- Apple, Globalstar and Amazon Leo
- The Gatekeepers: Phone Makers, Chipsets and Operating Systems
- Iridium, Skylo and the Standards Route
- The Satellite Spectrum Holders: Consolidation and Joint Ventures
- China's Direct-to-Device Path
- Defence and Government Use
- Standards: How 3GPP Brought Satellites into Mobile
- Spectrum I: Mobile Bands, Satellite Bands and the US Rules
- Interference and Coexistence: The Fight over Power Limits
- Spectrum II: WRC-27, Europe and the Global Rules
- What Direct-to-Device Spectrum Is Worth
- Roaming, Wholesale and Who Owns the Customer
- Operator Economics: Who Pays, and for What
- Pricing: What Consumers Pay Today
- Capex per Covered User
- The Ground Segment: Gateways, Cores and Lawful Intercept
- Use Cases: Who Actually Needs It
- Rural Coverage Policy: Towers, Subsidies and Satellites
- Emergencies and Public Safety
- Maritime, Aviation and Remote Industry
- Europe: Sovereignty, Operators and the 2 GHz Decision
- Country Profiles: Seven Markets Compared
- Asia-Pacific and Emerging Markets
- Satellites versus Towers
- Satellite IoT: The Volume Market
- The Starlink Mobile Scenario
- Market Structure in 2035: Who Wins What
- Forecasts Compared and Setcoin Scenarios
- Capacity Supply and Demand, 2026–2035
- The Supply Chain: Chips, Antennas and Launch
- Technology Roadmap, 2026–2035
- Regulation, Debris and the Night Sky
- Three Futures for 2035
- Case Studies
- Twelve Questions Answered
- What It Means for Each Reader
- The Case For and Against: A Structured Debate
- A Due-Diligence Checklist for Direct-to-Device
- Lessons from Adjacent Markets
- Risks, Signals and Method
- Appendix A: Direct-to-Device Systems Reference Table
- Appendix B: Glossary
- Appendix C: Setcoin Satellite Catalogue Dataset
02 · The market
Many Devices, Little Traffic
Setcoin's satellite-catalogue analysis (CelesTrak SATCAT, 18 October 2026) and company disclosures.
~7.4M
Devices a month on SpaceX mobile
In about 30 countries (S-1/A); paying users not disclosed
0.0002%
Of T-Mobile traffic over satellite
May 2026; mostly in national parks
~$1.3B
AST SpaceMobile contracted backlog
~12 BlueBirds in orbit; ~45 targeted by early 2027
03 · The fleets
One Constellation Dominates the Sky
Satellites in orbit that serve phones or D2D-capable devices, October 2026, from Setcoin's catalogue analysis and company counts.
Operational D2D-relevant satellites
satellites in orbit
Setcoin space engine (CelesTrak SATCAT), 18 October 2026; Iridium and Globalstar operational counts from the companies; AST from company statements.
Try the model
Can a satellite hear your phone?
Start from AST's 223 m² array at 520 km, then shrink the antenna, lower the orbit, widen the channel or move indoors, and watch the signal and throughput change. The defaults are the study's figures; your changes stay in your browser.
Interactive model
Link budget: can a satellite hear an ordinary phone?
How large must a satellite antenna be, and how low its orbit, for an unmodified phone to get a usable signal?
Scenarios
48.3 dBiSatellite antenna gain
155.0 dB · 710 kmPath loss over the slant range
15.3 dBUplink signal-to-noise ratio
15.3 MbpsPractical beam throughput
1 m²
6 m²
25 m²
64 m²
120 m²
223 m²
400 m²
800 m²
Mbps per beam at the same orbit, band and bandwidth, by antenna area
Show the calculation table
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Wavelength (m) | 0.158 |
| Slant range (km) | 710 |
| Satellite antenna gain (dBi) | 48.3 |
| Free-space path loss (dB) | 155.03 |
| Signal at satellite (dBm) | -86.74 |
| Noise in channel (dBm) | -102.01 |
| Uplink SNR (dB) | 15.27 |
| Spectral efficiency (bit/s/Hz) | 3.07 |
| Throughput (Mbps) | 15.35 |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Uplink signal-to-noise ratio” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Phone transmit power
Orbit altitude
Elevation angle to the satellite
Receiver noise figure
Satellite antenna area
Channel bandwidth
Antenna efficiency
Other losses (body, polarisation, atmosphere)
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
04 · The providers
Three Strategies for the Same Phone
Satellite counts from Setcoin's catalogue analysis; transactions as reported.
15,000 authorised
SpaceX
637 first-generation satellites with T-Mobile and ~30 partner countries; ~$17B for 65 MHz of EchoStar spectrum; next generation on Starship. Could sell mobile service directly.
- 637
- in orbit
- ~7.4M
- devices a month
Operator partner
AST SpaceMobile
223 m² BlueBird arrays in partners' spectrum; >60 operators incl. AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone (SatCo in Europe); $150–200M 2026 revenue guidance; >$3.7B pro forma cash.
- ~12
- BlueBirds
- ~$1.3B
- backlog
~$11.6B deal
Amazon + Globalstar + Apple
Amazon agreed in April 2026 to buy Globalstar, whose new satellites Apple largely funded for iPhone emergency and messaging services; D2D on Amazon Leo from ~2028 as reported.
- 85%
- capacity reserved for Apple
- 2022
- iPhone SOS launch
Try the model
What is the spectrum worth?
Price per MHz-pop for SpaceX's EchoStar purchase, the earnings it implies and the paying users needed to justify it. Compare AT&T's terrestrial purchase or change the cost of capital.
Interactive model
Spectrum value: what earnings justify the price?
What does a spectrum deal cost per MHz-pop, and how many paying users must it support?
Scenarios
$0.78Price per MHz-pop
$1.70BEarnings needed a year
57MPaying users needed
16.9%Share of population that must pay
Your deal
SpaceX–EchoStar (2025)
AT&T–EchoStar (2025)
US C-band auction (2021, as reported)
$ per MHz-pop
Show the calculation table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Price ($B) | 17 |
| MHz | 65 |
| Population (M) | 335 |
| $ per MHz-pop | 0.781 |
| Earnings needed ($B a year) | 1.7 |
| Paying users needed (M) | 56.7 |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Price per MHz-pop” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Bandwidth
Population covered
Price paid
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
05 · Partnerships
Who Partners with Whom
Operator D2D agreements by country, October 2026. SpaceX signed first across large, thinly populated countries; AST is the partner operators choose when they want one that does not sell to consumers. Switch between the world, North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific.
Authorised next-generation system · hover or tap a site for detail
All 15 sites, by category
SpaceX (Starlink Direct to Cell)
- T-Mobile (US) ◎ — T-Satellite: commercial July 2025; ~$10/month; open to other carriers' customers
- Rogers (Canada) — Rogers Satellite with Starlink
- Entel (Chile, Peru) — Services launched with Starlink
- Virgin Media O2 (UK) — First UK approval under 2026 D2D regulations
- Kyivstar (Ukraine) — Starlink messaging since 2025; wartime resilience
- KDDI (Japan) — au Starlink Direct
- Telstra, Optus (Australia) — Messaging live; outdoor coverage obligation proposed
- One NZ (New Zealand) — Satellite TXT since 2024
AST SpaceMobile / SatCo
- AT&T (US) — Definitive agreement with AST to 2030; strategic investor
- Verizon (US) — AST definitive agreement; also Skylo texting on Pixel and Galaxy
- Vodafone / SatCo (Luxembourg) — European JV with AST; EU ground stations and operations centre
- Rakuten Mobile (Japan) — AST partner and investor
Skylo, Lynk/Elveo, Apple–Globalstar
- Apple–Globalstar (US) — Emergency SOS and Messages via satellite since 2022; Amazon buying Globalstar (~$11.6B)
- Smart (Philippines) — Tests with Lynk and AST
State system (China)
- China Telecom (China) — Tiantong GEO calling on Huawei and other phones; LEO D2D tests (June 2026)
Operator and company announcements as reported; ringed: the system authorised for 15,000 next-generation satellites.
Try the model
What does D2D earn an operator?
Add-on revenue shared with the satellite partner, and the larger value of customers kept through lower churn. Bundle it free, price it at $5 for a fifth of customers, or switch off the churn effect.
Interactive model
Subscriber economics: what D2D earns an operator and its satellite partner
How much revenue does D2D add, how is it shared, and how much does lower churn matter?
Scenarios
2.0MPaying D2D users
$240MD2D add-on revenue a year
$696MOperator value a year (add-on share + retained revenue)
$0.58Operator value per subscriber per month
Operator share of add-on revenue Revenue
Satellite partner share Revenue
Revenue retained through lower churn (run-rate) Revenue
$M a year; satellite partner revenue shown for comparison
Show the calculation table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Subscribers (M) | 100 |
| Paying users (M) | 2 |
| Add-on revenue ($M a year) | 240 |
| Operator share ($M) | 120 |
| Satellite partner share ($M) | 120 |
| Customers retained after one year (M) | 1.2 |
| Retained revenue run-rate ($M a year) | 576 |
| Operator value ($M a year) | 696 |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Operator value a year (add-on share + retained revenue)” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Operator subscribers
Monthly churn reduction from satellite coverage
Average revenue per subscriber
Share paying for D2D (attach rate)
Monthly D2D price
Satellite partner share of D2D revenue
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
06 · Signals to watch
The Next 24 Months
- Early 2027AST reaches ~45 satellitesContinuous US service for AT&T and Verizon customers, or not.
- 2027First next-generation SpaceX D2D satellites on StarshipThe step-change in capacity, and the clock for a Starlink Mobile service.
- Oct–Nov 2027WRC-27 in ShanghaiInternational rules for satellites in mobile bands (agenda item 1.13).
- 2027–2028Amazon closes Globalstar; phones add new bandsApple's network choice and chipset support decide who reaches consumers.
07 · Check it yourself
Test This Study Against the Live Record
Every figure in this study comes from the public record. These Setcoin services let you check the companies, contracts and capital behind it yourself.
Setcoin Sectors
Who is being paid to build
More than a thousand cited R&D awards and prime contracts in space and aerospace, by organisation and readiness gate, from public procurement and grant data.
Open the space record →Setcoin for Venture
Check a company's claims
A company's round, filings and statements checked against the public record, to the same standard as this study.
Check a company →Setcoin Verify
Know who you are signing with
Registrations, ownership, sanctions listings and court records on a counterparty, cross-referenced and scored in one report the same day.
See what Verify checks →08 · The full study
What's Inside
Foundations and providers
- What D2D is, its history, the physics, protocols and capacity
- Usage evidence and a single beam worked through to revenue
- Starlink's first generation and Setcoin's catalogue analysis
- SpaceX's spectrum and 15,000 satellites; AST and its accounts
- Apple, Globalstar and Amazon; device gatekeepers; Iridium, Skylo, China
Spectrum and economics
- US rules, power limits, WRC-27, Europe and the UK
- What D2D spectrum is worth
- Roaming and wholesale, operator economics, consumer pricing
- Capex per paying user and the ground segment
- Use cases, rural coverage policy, emergencies, maritime, IoT
Outlook and tools
- Europe, country profiles, Asia-Pacific and emerging markets
- The Starlink Mobile scenario; forecasts and Setcoin scenarios
- Market structure, capacity balance, supply chain and roadmap
- Three futures, case studies, the case for and against
- Due-diligence checklist, risk register and five interactive models
Physics
Link budget
Antenna area, orbit, band and bandwidth turned into the signal an ordinary phone can deliver to a satellite, and the throughput that follows.
Capacity
Beam capacity
Spectrum per beam and signal quality shared among active users, showing which services each load can support.
Economics
Spectrum value
Price per MHz-pop and the earnings, and paying users, a spectrum purchase must support.
Free data tools
Check the live record yourself
The study's findings move with launches, contracts and filings. These free Setcoin tools show the current public record behind them, refreshed from the catalogues and procurement registers.
Free tool
Constellation Deployment Monitor
8 large constellations against what they are licensed or filed for: satellites launched, re-entered and net pace over twelve months, and the date each milestone is reached at that pace.
Follow AST SpaceMobile’s and Starlink’s deployment pace from the catalogue, launch by launch.
Open the monitor →Free tool
Space Claim Check
Type an operator’s name and see what the public satellite catalogues record: satellites launched, in orbit, operating and re-entered. The full check adds US contracts, SBIR awards, UK and NOAA licences and list screening.
Check an operator’s stated satellite count against the catalogue record before a spectrum or carrier deal.
Check an operator →Free tool
Space Contracts & Tender Radar
607 new US federal space awards and European tenders from the last twelve months, by part or service bought, buyer, country and stage, with the tenders still open.
See public buyers of satcom services and terminals.
Open the radar →Questions
Questions About the Study, Answered
What is direct-to-device satellite connectivity?
Satellites that connect directly to ordinary mobile phones or IoT devices, without a dish or a special satellite phone. In 2026 it mainly provides messaging, emergency alerts and light data outdoors where there are no mobile towers.
How many people use direct-to-device services?
SpaceX's 2026 filing reports about 7.4 million unique devices a month on its mobile services in about 30 countries. Use is light: T-Mobile said in May 2026 that satellite traffic was about 0.0002% of its network. No provider discloses how many people pay separately for D2D.
Why can't satellites give phones full broadband?
A phone transmits about 0.2 watts through an antenna with almost no gain, hundreds of kilometres from the satellite. Capacity therefore depends on very large satellite antennas and on spectrum per beam. First-generation beams carry a few megabits per second shared by everyone in an area tens of kilometres across.
What did SpaceX buy from EchoStar?
About 65 MHz of spectrum, AWS-4, H-block and unpaired AWS-3, for about $17 billion in cash and SpaceX stock, plus about $2 billion of interest payments. That is roughly $0.8 per MHz-pop on Setcoin's calculation. The FCC authorised SpaceX's 15,000-satellite next-generation D2D system on 6 October 2026.
How is AST SpaceMobile different from Starlink?
AST builds fewer, much larger satellites, with arrays of 223 m² on its Block 2 BlueBirds, that use mobile operators' own spectrum, and it sells only through operators such as AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone. It had about 12 BlueBirds in orbit in October 2026 and targets about 45 by early 2027.
Why is Amazon buying Globalstar?
For its globally coordinated satellite spectrum, its new satellites and its relationship with Apple, which funded most of Globalstar's satellite upgrade and uses it for iPhone emergency and messaging services. Amazon agreed the roughly $11.6 billion purchase in April 2026 and plans D2D on Amazon Leo from about 2028, as reported.
Will satellites replace mobile towers?
No. Even next-generation satellites deliver roughly a tenth of a rural tower's capacity per square kilometre and a ten-thousandth of an urban cell's. Satellites complement towers in remote areas, at sea and in disasters.
How large will the direct-to-device market be?
Setcoin's base case is about $9 billion of D2D revenue in 2030 and about $20 billion in 2035, with a low case of about $7 billion and a high case of about $44 billion in 2035. Published forecasts range from Omdia's ~$12 billion in 2030 to SatNxt's ~$27.7 billion in 2035; most of the difference lies in how users and revenue are defined.
What is WRC-27 and why does it matter for D2D?
The ITU's World Radiocommunication Conference in Shanghai, 18 October to 12 November 2027. Its agenda item 1.13 considers new mobile-satellite allocations so that satellites can connect directly to phones in bands from about 694 MHz to 2.7 GHz, which would give D2D international rules instead of national permissions.
How do I read the full study?
The first three chapters are open to everyone in full, with no account; the rest can be previewed. A space sector subscription, with a free trial, opens all 55 chapters, the five interactive models and their Excel files.
Setcoin Research analyses public markets, filings and programmes for information only. It is not investment advice and does not recommend any security.
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