Satellites to Phones:
Direct-to-Device Connectivity, Spectrum and Economics

The Physics: Why Phones and Satellites Struggle to Talk

Why is connecting an ordinary phone to a satellite so hard, and what do satellite designers do about it?

How a Phone Talks to a Satellite: Doppler, Delay and Handover

Beyond signal strength, what technical problems must be solved for an ordinary phone to work with a satellite moving at 7.5 kilometres per second?

Capacity: Why D2D Is Coverage, Not a Network Replacement

How much traffic can a direct-to-device satellite handle, how many users can it serve at once, and what happens when many people use it?

Measuring Usage: What the Evidence Shows

How much is direct-to-device actually used, by whom and where, and how reliable is the evidence?

The Market Today: Who Offers What

Which direct-to-device services exist in October 2026, who provides them, and how many satellites and users do they have?

One Beam, Worked Through: From Antenna to Revenue

How do physics, spectrum and pricing combine in a single satellite beam, and what does one beam earn?

Starlink Direct to Cell: The First Generation

How did SpaceX build the first large direct-to-device constellation, what does it deliver, and what has it taught?

The Direct-to-Cell Network in Numbers: Setcoin's Satellite Catalogue Analysis

What does the public satellite catalogue show about how the first-generation direct-to-cell network was built?

SpaceX's Spectrum Strategy and the 15,000-Satellite System

What has SpaceX bought, what has the FCC approved, and what does SpaceX intend to do with it?

AST SpaceMobile: Big Satellites, Many Operators

What is AST SpaceMobile building, how far has it got, and what does its business depend on?

Financing a Purpose-Built Constellation: AST SpaceMobile's Accounts

How is AST SpaceMobile financed, what do its accounts show, and what must happen for its model to pay off?

Capital Flows into Direct-to-Device, 2022–2026

How much money has gone into direct-to-device, from whom and in what form?

Apple, Globalstar and Amazon Leo

How did Apple build satellite features into the iPhone, and what does Amazon's purchase of Globalstar change?

The Gatekeepers: Phone Makers, Chipsets and Operating Systems

Who decides which satellite services a phone can use, and how much power does that give device makers?

Iridium, Skylo and the Standards Route

How do the companies that rely on the 3GPP standard and dedicated satellite spectrum compete with SpaceX and AST?

The Satellite Spectrum Holders: Consolidation and Joint Ventures

What are the traditional mobile satellite operators and spectrum holders doing as direct-to-device grows?

China's Direct-to-Device Path

How has China brought satellite connectivity to ordinary phones, and how will its megaconstellations change that?

Defence and Government Use

How are militaries and governments using direct-to-device, and what security issues does it raise?

Standards: How 3GPP Brought Satellites into Mobile

How has the mobile industry's standards process absorbed satellites, and what does that mean for phones and operators?

Spectrum I: Mobile Bands, Satellite Bands and the US Rules

Which frequencies can direct-to-device use, who decides, and why are interference fights central to the business?

Interference and Coexistence: The Fight over Power Limits

Why do satellite power limits matter so much for direct-to-device, and who argues over them?

Spectrum II: WRC-27, Europe and the Global Rules

How will international rules for direct-to-device spectrum be set, and what are Europe and the UK doing in the meantime?

What Direct-to-Device Spectrum Is Worth

What have companies paid for spectrum that can serve phones from space, and how does that compare with terrestrial mobile spectrum?

Roaming, Wholesale and Who Owns the Customer

How do direct-to-device services fit into the mobile industry's existing arrangements for roaming and wholesale access?

Operator Economics: Who Pays, and for What

How do mobile operators make money from direct-to-device, and how is revenue shared with satellite providers?

Pricing: What Consumers Pay Today

How is direct-to-device priced to consumers, and what does pricing reveal about its value?

Capex per Covered User

What does it cost to build a direct-to-device constellation, and how many paying users does it need?

The Ground Segment: Gateways, Cores and Lawful Intercept

What infrastructure on the ground does a direct-to-device network need, and why does it matter for cost and regulation?

Use Cases: Who Actually Needs It

Which users and applications will drive direct-to-device demand, and which will pay?

Rural Coverage Policy: Towers, Subsidies and Satellites

How do governments' rural coverage programmes interact with direct-to-device, and could public money shift from towers to satellites?

Emergencies and Public Safety

What role has direct-to-device played in disasters, and how are governments building it into public-safety systems?

Maritime, Aviation and Remote Industry

How will direct-to-device serve ships, aircraft and remote industrial sites, which have long relied on dedicated satellite services?

Europe: Sovereignty, Operators and the 2 GHz Decision

How is Europe approaching direct-to-device, and can it build a European system before American providers dominate?

Country Profiles: Seven Markets Compared

How does direct-to-device look in the markets where it is most advanced?

Asia-Pacific and Emerging Markets

Where outside North America and Europe will direct-to-device matter most, and who is serving those markets?

Satellites versus Towers

Will satellites compete with terrestrial mobile networks, or only fill their gaps?

Satellite IoT: The Volume Market

How large is the opportunity in connecting sensors and machines directly to satellites, and who is competing for it?

The Starlink Mobile Scenario

What happens if SpaceX becomes a mobile operator in its own right?

Market Structure in 2035: Who Wins What

How might direct-to-device revenue be divided among providers by 2035?

Forecasts Compared and Setcoin Scenarios

How large will the direct-to-device market be, and why do published forecasts disagree so widely?

Capacity Supply and Demand, 2026–2035

Will there be enough satellite capacity to serve the users in Setcoin's scenarios, or too much?

The Supply Chain: Chips, Antennas and Launch

What components and suppliers does direct-to-device depend on, and where are the bottlenecks?

Technology Roadmap, 2026–2035

How will D2D technology evolve over the next decade, and which advances matter most for capacity and cost?

Regulation, Debris and the Night Sky

What are the environmental, orbital and scientific objections to direct-to-device constellations, and how might they constrain growth?

Three Futures for 2035

What might the direct-to-device world look like in 2035 under Setcoin's low, base and high scenarios?

Case Studies

What do the leading direct-to-device ventures teach about strategy, capital and timing?

Twelve Questions Answered

What are the short answers to the questions readers most often ask about direct-to-device?

What It Means for Each Reader

What should mobile operators, satellite companies, governments, phone makers and capital providers take from this study?

The Case For and Against: A Structured Debate

What are the strongest arguments that direct-to-device will become a large business, and the strongest arguments that it will not?

A Due-Diligence Checklist for Direct-to-Device

What should a reviewer check before relying on a direct-to-device business plan?

Lessons from Adjacent Markets

What can satellite broadband, satellite radio and earlier mobile innovations teach about how direct-to-device will develop?

Risks, Signals and Method

What are the main risks to the outlook in this study, which signals will show how the market is developing, and how was the study prepared?

Appendix A: Direct-to-Device Systems Reference Table

Appendix B: Glossary

Appendix C: Setcoin Satellite Catalogue Dataset