The Case For and Against: A Structured Debate
What are the strongest arguments that direct-to-device will become a large business, and the strongest arguments that it will not?
Chapter summary
The case for rests on universal demand for coverage, falling launch and satellite costs, very large spectrum investments by companies that rarely misjudge markets, and the emergence of a standard that makes every phone a potential satellite device.
Key takeaways
- 1
The case against rests on physics that caps capacity, evidence that people use D2D rarely and pay little, the history of satellite communications ventures that failed financially, and the risk that most of the value accrues to device makers and operators rather than satellite providers.
- 2
Setcoin's base case sits between the two: a substantial but concentrated market, with most value captured by integrated providers.
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