Capex per Covered User
What does it cost to build a direct-to-device constellation, and how many paying users does it need?
Chapter summary
A D2D constellation's cost per user depends on three numbers: total capital spent on satellites, launch and ground; the life of the satellites; and how many people pay for the service.
Key takeaways
- 1
A constellation costing $5 billion with a five-year life costs about $1 billion a year before operations; spread over 50 million paying users that is under $2 per user per month, but over 5 million users it is nearly $17.
- 2
Because satellites cover the whole Earth, most of their capacity passes over oceans and empty land; the economics depend on capturing value from the populated areas they do serve.
- 3
Vertical integration matters here as in launch: SpaceX's direct-to-cell payloads ride on satellites it launches at internal cost, while AST must buy launches at market prices.
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