329
Launch attempts, 2025
Up from 87 in 2015; 245 in 2026 to mid-October
Setcoin Intelligence · Space Infrastructure · Launch · Updated October 2026
Launch After Starship: Prices, Capacity and European Sovereign Launch
What will a kilogram to orbit cost in 2030 and 2035, who will supply it, and can Europe close its sovereign gap? Forty-five chapters built on Setcoin's launch dataset and SpaceX's own 2026 filing: the market, Falcon 9 reuse, Starship, the challengers, China, Europe's Ariane 6 and Launcher Challenge, spaceports, demand, supply and prices to 2035.
Open to everyone: the first 3 chapters in full, with exhibits and models; a free account adds their Excel models. Space subscription: all 48 chapters, every model and Excel file, 7-day free trial, then €199 a month. Already a reader? Sign in.
- Chapters
- 45 + 3 appendices · 180 min
- Interactive Models
- 5, with Excel
- Data
- Launch log to 16 Oct 2026; SpaceX S-1
- Figures As Of
- 21 October 2026
- 329
- Launches worldwide, 2025
- 50%
- Flown by Falcon 9
- ~$60M
- Per SpaceX customer launch
- 180 min
- Read, 45 chapters
In short
The price of launch is set by one company's choices, not by a competitive market. SpaceX flew 165 of the world's 329 launches in 2025, 122 of them for its own Starlink, and earned about $60 million per customer launch while its costs fell with booster reuse. Starship reached orbit with its first operational payload in September 2026; whether customers see its lower costs depends on competition that is still late. Europe has recovered sovereign access with Ariane 6 and pays about €0.4–0.6 billion a year for it on Setcoin's estimate.
01 · The answer
One company sets the price of a kilogram
The world attempted 329 orbital and deep-space launches in 2025, four times as many as in 2015. SpaceX flew 165 of them. By its own 2026 filing, 122 carried its own Starlink satellites and 43 carried external customers, who paid about $60 million per launch on average (Setcoin calculation), a price that has barely moved while booster reuse cut SpaceX's costs. One booster has now flown 37 times.
Starship reached orbit with its first operational payload, 26 Starlink V3 satellites, on 28 September 2026. If both stages are reused many times, its cost per kilogram could fall below $100–200. Its reported dedicated price is about $90 million, or $900 per kilogram. Cost is not price: customers will see the fall only if someone can compete.
The challengers are late. Vulcan's solid boosters failed twice in four flights; New Glenn stranded a customer's satellite in April 2026; Neutron, Nova and Terran R had not flown by mid-October. China's LandSpace landed a Zhuque-3 booster in 2026, but Chinese rockets serve Chinese demand.
Europe has recovered: Ariane 6 has succeeded on all nine flights and Isar's Spectrum reached orbit in September 2026 as the first Launcher Challenge company. Europe pays about €0.4–0.6 billion a year for its sovereignty on Setcoin's estimate, affordable by budget, expensive per kilogram, and rising if Europe stays expendable.
The study, chapter by chapter
45 chapters + 3 appendices · 180 min · updated 2026-10-21
- Executive Summary
- Sixty Years of the Price of a Kilogram
- Forty Years of Commercial Launch Competition
- The Market Today: Who Launches What
- Anatomy of a Launch Price
- Reliability: Why New Rockets Fail and What It Costs
- SpaceX's Launch Business, from Its Own Filing
- Inside the Accounts: How Reuse Shows Up in the Books
- Falcon 9 Reuse: How a Booster Flies 37 Times
- Starship: What Has Flown and What It Could Cost
- Starship's Other Markets
- Heavy Lift Today: Falcon Heavy, Vulcan, New Glenn and SLS
- Starship Cadence Scenarios to 2030
- The Challengers: Vulcan, New Glenn, Neutron and the Next Medium Class
- Small Launch After the Shake-Out
- Rocket Lab: The Economics of the Second Launch Company
- China's Launch Industry
- How China Finances Its Launch Industry
- Japan, India, Korea and the Rest
- Europe I: Ariane 6 and Vega C
- Inside an Ariane 6 Launch
- Europe II: The Launcher Challenge
- Europe III: What Sovereignty Costs
- Europe IV: The Industrial Base and the Path to Reuse
- Spaceports and Range Capacity
- Spaceport Economics
- The Economics of Reuse
- Engines, Propellants and the Launch Supply Chain
- Demand I: Constellations
- How Launch Prices Shape Satellites
- Demand II: Governments, Defence and Human Spaceflight
- National Security Launch in Depth
- The Crew Market: Seats, Stations and Private Astronauts
- Responsive Launch and Military Demand
- The Lunar and Deep-Space Launch Market
- Supply and Demand, 2026–2035
- Price Scenarios for 2030 and 2035
- Kick Stages and Orbital Transfer Vehicles
- Rideshare and the Integrator Business
- Regulation, Licensing and Insurance
- Launch and the Environment
- Case Studies: Launch Decisions Under Constraint
- What This Means for Different Readers
- A Due-Diligence Checklist for Launch Counterparties
- Risk Register, Signals and Method
- Appendix A: Vehicle Reference Table
- Appendix B: Glossary
- Appendix C: Launch Dataset
02 · The market
Half the World's Launches, One Vehicle Family
Setcoin's launch dataset, from the GCAT launch log, data to 16 October 2026, and SpaceX's own filing.
165
Falcon launches, 2025
50% of all attempts; 157 on flight-proven boosters
74%
For SpaceX's own Starlink
122 internal launches against 43 for customers (S-1/A)
92
Chinese launches, 2025
69 Long March, 23 commercial; a Zhuque-3 booster landed in August 2026
03 · Who launches
Two Countries Fly Five Launches in Six
Orbital and deep-space launch attempts in 2025 by country of the launch vehicle, from Setcoin's launch dataset (GCAT).
Launch attempts, 2025
329 attempts worldwide
Setcoin space engine (GCAT launch log), data to 16 October 2026. Electron launches from New Zealand are counted under New Zealand.
Try the model
What does a kilogram to orbit cost?
Start from an early Starship with its ship expended, then reuse both stages, raise the cadence or change the margin, and compare with Falcon 9's customer price. The defaults are the study's figures; your changes stay in your browser.
Interactive model
Launch cost stack: from hardware to price per kilogram
What does one launch cost, and what price per kilogram follows from reuse, cadence and margin?
Scenarios
$73MCost per launch
$91MPrice per launch
$730Cost per kg
$913Price per kg
Booster, amortised
Upper stage, amortised
Refurbishment and recovery
Propellant
Operations and overhead
Benchmark: Falcon 9 customer average (2025) Benchmark
Benchmark: Starship dedicated (reported) Benchmark
$M per launch · largest element highlighted
Show the calculation table
| Element | $M per launch | Share of cost |
|---|---|---|
| Booster, amortised | 9 | 12.3% |
| Upper stage, amortised | 40 | 54.8% |
| Refurbishment and recovery | 5 | 6.8% |
| Propellant | 1.5 | 2.1% |
| Operations and overhead | 17.5 | 24.0% |
| Cost per launch | 73 | 100% |
| Price per launch | 91.25 | — |
| Cost per kg ($) | 730 | — |
| Price per kg ($) | 913 | — |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Cost per launch” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Upper stage (ship) build cost
Operations, range and overhead per flight
Flights per booster
First stage (booster) build cost
Refurbishment and recovery per flight
Propellant per flight
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
04 · The vehicles
Who Could Compete with Falcon 9 and Starship
Payloads are manufacturer figures to low Earth orbit; prices are reported or estimated, because most are not published.
First payload Sep 2026
Starship
100 t (V3), fully reusable by design. 14 flight tests; booster caught by the tower; ship recovery and propellant transfer not yet shown. Reported dedicated price ~$90M.
- 100 t
- to LEO
- ~$900
- per kg at reported price
Benchmark
Falcon 9
~17.5 t with booster recovery. 1 failure in ~500 attempts since 2023. Customer average ~$60M per launch (Setcoin calculation from the S-1/A).
- 37
- flights, one booster
- 95%
- flight-proven, 2025
Late
New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron
New Glenn (~45 t) landed boosters but lost a customer satellite in April 2026; Vulcan (~27 t) paused over booster anomalies; Neutron (~13 t) not yet flown.
- 3
- New Glenn flights
- 4
- Vulcan flights
Try the model
When does supply catch up with demand?
Open, non-captive Western launch demand against Falcon customer launches, the second tier and Starship's customer flights. Delay the challengers or wind Falcon down early and watch the balance move.
Interactive model
Open-market launch balance, 2026–2035
When does supply for non-captive Western launch catch up with demand?
Scenarios
18 launchesShortfall in 2026
2029First year supply meets demand
+15 launchesBalance in 2030
36.4%Falcon share of open supply, 2030
DemandTotal open supplyFalcon customer launchesSecond tierStarship for customersOpen-market launches a year (launch-equivalents) · hover for values
Show the calculation table
| Year | Demand | Falcon | Second tier | Starship | Supply | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,026 | 75 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 57 | -18 |
| 2,027 | 80 | 44 | 24 | 0 | 68 | -12 |
| 2,028 | 84 | 43 | 36 | 3 | 82 | -2 |
| 2,029 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 7 | 96 | 7 |
| 2,030 | 95 | 40 | 60 | 10 | 110 | 15 |
| 2,031 | 100 | 36 | 63 | 14 | 113 | 13 |
| 2,032 | 106 | 32 | 66 | 18 | 116 | 10 |
| 2,033 | 113 | 28 | 69 | 22 | 119 | 7 |
| 2,034 | 120 | 24 | 73 | 26 | 123 | 3 |
| 2,035 | 127 | 20 | 77 | 30 | 127 | -0 |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “First year supply meets demand” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
Open Western demand, 2026
Falcon customer launches, 2026
Falcon customer launches, 2030
Second-tier launches, 2030 (Vulcan, New Glenn, Neutron, others)
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
05 · Europe
Europe Recovers Its Access, at a Price
Ariane 6 has flown nine times without a failure; the Launcher Challenge has signed three start-ups; Setcoin estimates the sovereignty premium at €0.4–0.6 billion a year.
9 of 9
Ariane 6
Ariane 62 and 64; 18 launches booked by Amazon; €290–340M a year of operating support to ~2031; estimated €80–100M per Ariane 62 launch.
- 9/9
- successes
- €290–340M
- support a year
€544M signed
Launcher Challenge
Isar (€197.8M), RFA (€186.9M) and PLD Space (€158.9M) signed in August 2026; MaiaSpace pending; orbit required by about end-2027. Isar reached orbit on 5 September 2026.
- €902M
- subscribed
- 3
- contracts
Undecided
The path to reuse
Prometheus, Themis and Callisto are demonstrators; no reusable successor to Ariane 6 is funded. The 2028 ESA ministerial is the next decision point.
- ~€0.4–0.6B
- premium a year
- 2028
- next decision
Try the model
What does Europe pay for its own launch?
Operating support plus the price gap on institutional launches, per launch, per kilogram and as a share of ESA's budget. Try a reusable European successor, or a cheap Starship.
Interactive model
Europe's launch sovereignty premium
What does Europe pay each year to keep its own access to space?
Scenarios
€525MSovereignty premium a year
€88MPer institutional launch
€13,125Per kg of institutional payload
6.8%Share of ESA budget
Ariane 6 operating support
Price gap on institutional launches
Total premium
€M a year
Show the calculation table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating support (€M) | 315 |
| Institutional launches a year | 6 |
| Price gap per launch (€M) | 35 |
| Price gap total (€M) | 210 |
| Premium (€M a year) | 525 |
| Per kg (€) | 13,125 |
| Premium to 2035 at this rate (€B) | 5.25 |
Sensitivity: which input moves the answer most
What moves “Sovereignty premium a year” most: each input 20% lower (left of a pair) and 20% higher
European price per launch
Equivalent non-European price
Ariane 6 operating support
European institutional launches a year
This is one of 5 interactive models in the report. The first 3 chapters of the report are open to everyone; a Space subscription, with a 7-day free trial, opens every model and its Excel file.
06 · Spaceports
Where Rockets Can Fly From
Thirty launch sites: operating, approved for expansion, and new or planned. Ringed sites are the only one of their kind in their region. Switch between the world, the United States, Europe and Asia.
ringed: the only site of its kind in its region · hover or tap a site for detail · launch counts from the Setcoin space engine (GCAT)
All 30 sites, by category
Operating
- Cape Canaveral SFS (Florida) — 82 launches in 2025; Falcon 9, Atlas V, Vulcan, New Glenn
- Vandenberg SFB (California) ◎ — Busiest site in the world in 2026 (65 to mid-October); polar and SDA launches
- Starbase (Texas) — Starship development and launch; two pads
- Pacific Spaceport, Kodiak (Alaska) — Small launch; polar orbits
- Mahia (New Zealand) — Rocket Lab's private site; licensed for up to 120 launches a year; 17 launches in 2025
- Guiana Space Centre, Kourou ◎ — Ariane 6, Vega C; Vega E on the former Ariane 5 pad; Europe's only medium/heavy site
- Jiuquan (China) — 33 launches in 2025; Long March and commercial rockets
- Taiyuan (China) — Long March; polar orbits
- Xichang (China) — Long March 3B to geostationary transfer
- Wenchang (China) — Long March 5, 7, 8; crewed lunar programme
- Haiyang sea launch (China) — Sea platforms for commercial rockets
- Plesetsk (Russia) — Soyuz, Angara
- Baikonur (Kazakhstan) — Soyuz, Proton; crew launches
- Vostochny (Russia) — Soyuz, Angara
- Tanegashima (Japan) — H3; QZS-7 with a US sensor, August 2026
- Sriharikota (India) — PSLV, GSLV, LVM3; Vikram-1 reached orbit 18 July 2026
- Naro (South Korea) — Nuri
- Palmachim (Israel) — Shavit
Approved expansion
- Kennedy LC-39A (Florida) — Starship approved up to 44 launches a year (FAA, early 2026); pad work under way
- Cape Canaveral SLC-37 (Florida) — Starship approved up to 76 launches a year (Air Force); FAA airspace analysis pending
- Vandenberg SLC-6 (California) — Second SpaceX pad; up to 100 Falcon launches a year with SLC-4E; ready ~2027
New or planned
- Wallops (Virginia) — Electron LC-2; Neutron LC-3 awaiting first vehicle; Eclipse planned
- Andøya (Norway) — Isar Aerospace Spectrum; reached orbit 5 September 2026
- SaxaVord, Shetland (UK) — RFA One first launch planned
- Esrange (Sweden) — Test campaigns; potential orbital launches
- Sutherland (UK) — Planned for Orbex (in administration, 2026)
- Santa Maria, Azores (Portugal) — Planned spaceport
- Hainan commercial spaceport (China) — Opened 2024; most Guowang and Qianfan launches; 14 launches in 2026 to mid-October
- Kulasekarapattinam (India) — Second Indian site for small rockets, under construction
- Bowen (Australia) — Gilmour Space Eris; first flight failed July 2025
Launch counts from the Setcoin space engine (GCAT); approvals from FAA and Department of the Air Force decisions; company announcements.
07 · Signals to watch
The Next 24 Months
- Late 2026Starship ship catch; first Florida launchThe step that decides the cost stack, and cadence beyond Starbase.
- Late 2026–2027Neutron and RFA One first flights; Vulcan's returnWhether a Western second tier exists before 2029.
- 2027Zhuque-3 reflight; Starship propellant transferChinese reuse and the lunar market.
- 2028ESA ministerialWhether Europe funds a reusable successor to Ariane 6.
08 · Check it yourself
Test This Study Against the Live Record
Every figure in this study comes from the public record. These Setcoin services let you check the companies, contracts and capital behind it yourself.
Setcoin Sectors
Who is being paid to build
More than a thousand cited R&D awards and prime contracts in space and aerospace, by organisation and readiness gate, from public procurement and grant data.
Open the space record →Capital Map
Who funds each stage
244 tracked capital profiles on one ladder, from seed to construction loan, by stage, ticket size and sector, including space.
Open the explorer →Setcoin Verify
Know who you are signing with
Registrations, ownership, sanctions listings and court records on a counterparty, cross-referenced and scored in one report the same day.
See what Verify checks →09 · The full study
What's Inside
Market and prices
- Sixty years of the price of a kilogram and forty years of competition
- Who launches what: Setcoin's launch dataset
- Anatomy of a launch price; reliability and first-flight risk
- SpaceX's launch business and accounts from its own filing
- Price scenarios for 2030 and 2035
Vehicles and industry
- Falcon 9 reuse, Starship, cadence scenarios and other markets
- Heavy lift today; Vulcan, New Glenn, Neutron
- Small launch and Rocket Lab's economics
- China's launch industry and how it is financed; Japan, India, Korea
- Spaceports and spaceport finance; reuse economics; engines
- Transfer vehicles, rideshare, regulation, insurance, environment
Europe, demand and models
- Europe in five chapters, including inside an Ariane 6 launch
- Constellations, satellite design, national security, crew, responsive and lunar demand
- Supply and demand 2026–2035
- Six case studies and a due-diligence checklist
- 18-risk register and signals
- Five interactive models with Excel; spaceport map
Cost to price
Cost stack
A launch rebuilt from booster, upper stage, refurbishment, propellant, operations and margin, from expendable rockets to a fully reused Starship.
Capacity
Open-market balance
Non-captive Western demand against Falcon customer launches, the second tier and Starship's customer flights, year by year to 2035.
Europe
Sovereignty premium
What Europe pays each year for its own launch: operating support plus the price gap on institutional launches, per launch and per kilogram.
Free data tools
Check the live record yourself
The study's findings move with launches, contracts and filings. These free Setcoin tools show the current public record behind them, refreshed from the catalogues and procurement registers.
Free tool
Constellation Deployment Monitor
8 large constellations against what they are licensed or filed for: satellites launched, re-entered and net pace over twelve months, and the date each milestone is reached at that pace.
Constellation build-out is most of the launch demand in this study: see each fleet’s twelve-month pace and what its milestones still require.
Open the monitor →Free tool
Space Contracts & Tender Radar
607 new US federal space awards and European tenders from the last twelve months, by part or service bought, buyer, country and stage, with the tenders still open.
See which agencies are buying launch services and which launch tenders are open.
Open the radar →Free tool
Space Claim Check
Type an operator’s name and see what the public satellite catalogues record: satellites launched, in orbit, operating and re-entered. The full check adds US contracts, SBIR awards, UK and NOAA licences and list screening.
Check what the catalogues record for a launch customer or satellite operator.
Check an operator →Questions
Questions About the Study, Answered
How much does it cost to launch a kilogram to orbit in 2026?
It depends on the rocket and on whether you fill it. A full Falcon 9 costs a customer roughly $3,400 per kilogram of capacity to low Earth orbit; SpaceX's own filing implies customers paid about $8,300 per kilogram of their own payload in 2025, because most rockets fly part-full. Rideshare costs about $7,000 per kilogram, and a dedicated small launch on Electron about $28,000 per kilogram of capacity.
Why hasn't the price of launch fallen as reuse has cut costs?
Because one company flies most of the launches open to Western customers and prices against more expensive alternatives. SpaceX's customer launch revenue averaged about $60 million per launch in 2023–2025 (Setcoin calculation from its S-1/A) while booster reuse cut its costs; it used the difference to build Starlink and fund Starship.
How much of SpaceX's launch activity is for its own satellites?
Most of it. SpaceX's filing reports 165 Falcon launches in 2025, of which 122 launched its own Starlink satellites and 43 carried external customers; 86% of the mass it launched in 2025 was its own.
What will Starship cost per kilogram?
With its ship expended, about $700–750 per kilogram on Setcoin's cost stack; with both stages reused many times, below $100–200. Its reported price for a dedicated launch is about $90 million, or $900 per kilogram at 100 tonnes. What customers pay will depend on competition.
Which rockets could compete with SpaceX before 2030?
Blue Origin's New Glenn, the only other Western rocket to land an orbital booster; ULA's Vulcan, certified for national security launches but paused in 2026 over booster anomalies; and new reusable medium rockets such as Rocket Lab's Neutron, Relativity's Terran R and Stoke's Nova, none of which had flown by mid-October 2026.
Is China ahead in reusable rockets?
China is the only country other than the United States where a company has landed an orbital booster: LandSpace recovered a Zhuque-3 first stage at sea in July 2026 and on land in August 2026. China flew 92 launches in 2025, but its rockets serve Chinese constellations and government programmes and are closed to most Western customers.
Has Europe recovered independent access to space?
Yes. Ariane 6 has succeeded on all nine flights since July 2024 and Vega C on six in a row. ESA's European Launcher Challenge signed contracts with Isar Aerospace, Rocket Factory Augsburg and PLD Space in August 2026, and Isar's Spectrum reached orbit on 5 September 2026.
What does Europe pay for sovereign launch?
About €0.4–0.6 billion a year on Setcoin's estimate: €290–340 million of Ariane 6 operating support plus the price gap on European institutional launches compared with SpaceX. That is roughly 5–8% of ESA's annual budget but about €10,000–15,000 per kilogram of institutional payload.
Will there be enough launch capacity for satellite constellations?
Not for everyone in 2026–2028. Challengers are late while Amazon Leo, the Space Development Agency and Europe need capacity; Amazon asked the FCC for more time in 2026 citing a shortage of launches. Setcoin's base case has supply for non-captive Western launch catching up around 2029.
How do I read the full study?
The first three chapters are open to everyone in full, with no account; the rest can be previewed. A space sector subscription, with a free trial, opens all 45 chapters, the five interactive models and their Excel files.
Setcoin Research analyses public markets, filings and programmes for information only. It is not investment advice and does not recommend any security.
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