Launch After Starship:
Prices, Capacity and European Sovereign Launch

The Market Today: Who Launches What

How many rockets fly, from which countries and on which vehicles, and how concentrated is the market?

Anatomy of a Launch Price

What does a launch price pay for?

Reliability: Why New Rockets Fail and What It Costs

How reliable are new rockets, and what does unreliability cost?

SpaceX's Launch Business, from Its Own Filing

What does SpaceX's own filing reveal?

Inside the Accounts: How Reuse Shows Up in the Books

What do SpaceX's accounting policies reveal?

Falcon 9 Reuse: How a Booster Flies 37 Times

How did booster reuse go from experiment to routine, and what does it save?

Starship: What Has Flown and What It Could Cost

What has Starship shown, and what could a kilogram cost on it?

Starship's Other Markets

Beyond launching satellites, what markets could a fully reusable super-heavy rocket open, and how real are they?

Heavy Lift Today: Falcon Heavy, Vulcan, New Glenn and SLS

Who launches the heaviest payloads, and how will Starship change that?

Starship Cadence Scenarios to 2030

How many Starship flights, and how much mass?

The Challengers: Vulcan, New Glenn, Neutron and the Next Medium Class

Which Western rockets could compete before 2030?

Small Launch After the Shake-Out

Is there a viable business in launching small satellites on dedicated small rockets, and who has survived?

Rocket Lab: The Economics of the Second Launch Company

What do Rocket Lab's results show?

China's Launch Industry

How large is China's launch industry, how is it organised, and how close is it to reusable rockets?

How China Finances Its Launch Industry

How are China's commercial launch companies funded?

Japan, India, Korea and the Rest

How are the other launching nations doing, and do they matter to the global market?

Europe I: Ariane 6 and Vega C

Has Europe recovered independent access to space?

Inside an Ariane 6 Launch

Why does an Ariane 6 launch cost what it does?

Europe II: The Launcher Challenge

Can Europe create competitive launch companies?

Europe III: What Sovereignty Costs

What does Europe pay each year for its own access to space?

Europe IV: The Industrial Base and the Path to Reuse

What does Europe's launch industry look like, how is it organised, and what would it take to build a reusable European rocket?

Spaceports and Range Capacity

Is ground capacity becoming a constraint?

Spaceport Economics

How are spaceports paid for?

The Economics of Reuse

When does a reusable rocket cost less than an expendable one?

Engines, Propellants and the Launch Supply Chain

Which parts of the launch supply chain are concentrated, which are growing, and where could a single failure stop several rockets?

Demand I: Constellations

How much launch will constellations need to 2035?

How Launch Prices Shape Satellites

How do satellite designers respond to cheaper launch?

Demand II: Governments, Defence and Human Spaceflight

How much launch will governments buy to 2035, for what, and on what terms?

National Security Launch in Depth

How does the US buy national security launches?

The Crew Market: Seats, Stations and Private Astronauts

What does it cost to fly a person to orbit?

Responsive Launch and Military Demand

Will armed forces need rockets that can launch within days or hours, and who could provide them?

The Lunar and Deep-Space Launch Market

How much launch does the return to the Moon require, who provides it, and how does it compare with Earth-orbit demand?

Supply and Demand, 2026–2035

Will there be enough launch capacity?

Price Scenarios for 2030 and 2035

What will a kilogram to orbit cost in 2030 and 2035?

Kick Stages and Orbital Transfer Vehicles

How do satellites get from where a rocket drops them to where they need to be, and is that a business?

Rideshare and the Integrator Business

How does rideshare work, and who organises it?

Regulation, Licensing and Insurance

How do licensing, environmental review and insurance shape launch?

Launch and the Environment

What does a rising launch rate do to the atmosphere?

Case Studies: Launch Decisions Under Constraint

What do recent launch decisions by OneWeb, the European Union and Amazon show about how customers actually buy launch?

What This Means for Different Readers

How should satellite operators, suppliers, lenders, governments and industrial investors read the launch market?

A Due-Diligence Checklist for Launch Counterparties

What should counterparties check?

Risk Register, Signals and Method

What could go wrong, and what should readers watch?

Appendix A: Vehicle Reference Table

Reference

Appendix B: Glossary

Appendix C: Launch Dataset

Reference