Scenarios to 2050
How might space-based solar power develop over the next twenty-five years?
Chapter summary
Setcoin sets out three scenarios.
Key takeaways
- 1
In the low case, demonstrations succeed technically but launch and hardware costs stay too high; SBSP remains a niche for defence and power to satellites, with no grid-scale plant by 2050.
- 2
In the base case, kilowatt-to-megawatt systems serve defence, remote sites and satellites in the 2030s, a first grid-connected demonstration plant of tens to hundreds of megawatts operates around 2035–2040, and a few gigawatt plants exist by 2050, mainly in China and possibly the US or Europe, at costs comparable to new nuclear.
- 3
In the high case, Starship-class launch falls to about $100 per kilogram, mass-produced tiles reach about $1 per watt and SBSP becomes a meaningful firm-power source by 2050 with tens of gigawatts installed.
Keep reading with Space access
This chapter (1 exhibits, 349 words) is part of Space & aerospace. Space access opens every chapter of all 11 Space reports, with the interactive models, Excel downloads, Ask and named Atlas records.
- Global Market Analysis: Deep Space Economy
- Space-Based Datacenters: Feasibility Study
- Commercial Space Stations: Feasibility Study
- Defence Space and Missile Defence: Golden Dome and the SDA Architecture
- Launch After Starship: Prices, Capacity and European Sovereign Launch, 2026–2035
- Satellites to Phones: Direct-to-Device Connectivity, Spectrum and Economics, 2026–2035
- Space Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Components, Minerals and Capacity, 2026–2030
- Lunar, Cislunar and Settlement Economics: What the Moon Costs and Who Pays, 2026–2060
- Earth Observation and AI Analytics: What a Square Kilometre Is Worth and Who Captures It, 2026–2035
- In-Space Manufacturing and Microgravity Biotech: Products, Platforms and Economics, 2026–2035
- Space-Based Solar Power: Physics, Costs and the Path to Firm Power from Orbit, 2026–2050
€199 a month or €1,490 a year per sector, after a 7-day free trial. Cancel any time. Need several sectors? All sectors: €999 a month.
Check the live record Space Contracts & Tender Radar · Space Claim Check (free)
Ask about this chapter
Answers drawn from every Setcoin report and the live Atlas. Each statement links to the passage behind it.
Ask is included with every subscription
Cited answers across every report and the Atlas, with follow-up questions and a hand-off to the opportunity finder.
Research for professional investors. Not investment advice, and not an offer of any security or fund interest.