Commercial Space Stations
Feasibility Study
The ISS retires at the end of 2030 and NASA will buy services from commercially owned stations instead. Four programmes compete for at least two NASA development awards expected in spring 2027. This study, updated to 20 October 2026, finds commercial stations feasible as technology and necessary as policy, but commercially unproven: each station needs $2–4 billion, NASA's funding covers 15–30% of it, and NASA's anchor payments cover only 20–30% of a station's operating cost.
- End 2030
- ISS retirement
- 9 Oct 2026
- NASA final RFP
- $3B+
- Private capital raised
- 128 min
- Read, 28 chapters
Chapters
What each chapter answers
- 016 min · Free
Executive Summary
Can commercial space stations replace the ISS by the end of 2030, and who will pay for them?
Executive summaryKey figuresScorecard - 028 min · Free
ISS Retirement and the NASA Transition
Why does the ISS end in 2030, and how has NASA’s plan to replace it changed?
TimelineRanking - 037 min · Free
Market Analysis and Demand Assessment
Who will pay for time on a commercial station, and is there enough of it?
GrowthScorecard - 046 min · Subscribers
Competitive Positioning Analysis
Which station programmes are best placed to replace the ISS, and how far have they slipped?
Scorecard - 057 min · Subscribers
Technology Readiness Assessment
Which station technologies are flight-proven, and what still has to be qualified?
Range chartComparison - 065 min · Subscribers
NASA Commercial LEO Destinations Programme Deep-Dive
What is NASA buying, how will it choose, and how many stations can it afford?
RankingSplitFramework - 075 min · Subscribers
China, Tiangong and the Geopolitical Dimension
What happens if Tiangong is the only permanently crewed station after 2030?
TimelineComparison - 085 min · Subscribers
Revenue Model Viability
Can a commercial station cover its operating costs?
Range chartRanking - 094 min · Subscribers
Capital Requirements and Funding Gap Analysis
How much capital does a station need, and how much of it is still missing?
Range chartRanking - 104 min · Subscribers
Delivering a Station: EPC Framework and Supply Chain
How is a station delivered, and where are the supply chain bottlenecks?
FrameworkComparisonRange chart - 116 min · Subscribers
Cost Benchmarks: Bill of Quantities Approach
What does station capacity cost, and where does the cost fall?
RankingRange chart - 125 min · Subscribers
Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Which risks could stop a commercial station programme?
Ranking - 135 min · Subscribers
Regulatory and Legal Framework
Who licenses a commercial station, and what law applies on board?
Framework - 144 min · Subscribers
ESG and Sustainability Framework
What are the environmental, social and governance issues for a commercial station?
Key figuresComparison - 155 min · Subscribers
The Human Spaceflight Record: Demand Evidence, 2000–2026
How many people actually fly to orbit each year, and who pays for them?
Key figuresTrendSplitRanking - 164 min · Subscribers
Transport and Logistics: The Supply Line to Orbit
How is a station supplied, and what changes when the ISS ends?
SplitTrendComparison - 172 min · Subscribers
The Orbital Environment at Station Altitudes
How crowded are the altitudes where stations fly?
Key figuresSplitTrend - 184 min · Subscribers
Federal Spending Record: What NASA Has Paid For
What has NASA actually paid for in low Earth orbit, and how much has gone to commercial stations?
RankingSplit - 194 min · Subscribers
Research Demand: The Scientific Record
Is the research community that would use a commercial station growing, and who funds it?
TrendRanking - 203 min · Subscribers
Programme Dossier: Axiom Station
How strong is Axiom’s position, and what could stop it?
Timeline - 213 min · Subscribers
Programme Dossier: Starlab
Can a single-launch station replace the ISS on time?
Framework - 222 min · Subscribers
Programme Dossier: Vast Haven-1 and Haven-2
Will Vast be first, and does first matter?
Timeline - 232 min · Subscribers
Programme Dossier: Orbital Reef and the Second Tier
What happens to the programmes that are not selected?
- 245 min · Subscribers
Precedents: What Earlier Stations Teach
What do Skylab, Mir, Bigelow and commercial crew teach commercial stations?
Timeline - 254 min · Subscribers
Sovereign Customers: Who Will Buy Station Access
Which countries will buy access to commercial stations, and what do they need?
Comparison - 264 min · Subscribers
Operating a Station: Ground Segment, Crew and Insurance
What does it take to run a station, and where can the cost come down?
Framework - 276 min · Subscribers
Strategic Implications and Decision Framework
What should each stakeholder decide, and which signals should change their view?
SplitTimeline - 283 min · Subscribers
Appendix: Timeline, Glossary and Sources
Where do the figures in this study come from?
The first 3 chapters of this and every report are open to everyone. Space access opens all 28, with the models and their Excel files.
Subscribe to SpaceFree data tools
Check the live record behind the study
- Free tool
Space Contracts & Tender Radar
Follow new NASA and European awards and tenders for exploration, platforms and space R&D.
607 new US federal space awards and European tenders from the last twelve months, by part or service bought, buyer, country and stage, with the tenders still open.
Open the radar → - Free tool
Space Claim Check
Check a station developer’s or partner’s flight record in the catalogues.
Type an operator’s name and see what the public satellite catalogues record: satellites launched, in orbit, operating and re-entered. The full check adds US contracts, SBIR awards, UK and NOAA licences and list screening.
Check an operator →
Setcoin Atlas · Space & aerospace
The thesis, against the live record
Research and contract activity on public registers, mapped to the bottlenecks this report names.
1,096
awards & contracts on record
1,063
organisations
$9.0bn
awarded (corrected)
171
new in the last 90 days
Awarded value after removing $16.9bn of aircraft and missile awards misfiled under space.
See the evidence behind each bottleneck
Free accounts see the evidence ladder, regional split and the most active organisations and projects, anonymised.
Ask about Commercial Space Stations
Answers drawn from every Setcoin report and the live Atlas. Each statement links to the passage behind it.
Ask is included with every subscription
Cited answers across every report and the Atlas, with follow-up questions and a hand-off to the opportunity finder.