Part VI: Strategic Implications
How does the surge change the balance with the US, Russia and China?
Chapter summary
If Europe reaches 3.5%, the US share of NATO spending falls substantially. The chapter weighs this against Russia's war economy and China's defence budget.
Key takeaways
- 1
The US accounts for 68% of NATO spending today; 50–55% by 2035 if Europe reaches 3.5%.
- 2
Russia spends about €100B, around 6% of GDP; reconstitution is put at 5+ years post-Ukraine.
- 3
China's defence spending is about €250B.
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- European Defence Spending Surge: €800B ReArm Europe by 2030
- European Counter-Drone Market Assessment 2026–2030
- Ukraine Battlefield Lessons: Critical Defence Investments 2026–2035
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