Part V: Risk Analysis & Scenarios
How far will European spending actually rise by 2035?
Chapter summary
Four scenarios bracket the outcome, from a fragmented response where only frontline states reach 3.5% to a crisis in which 5% is reached by 2030.
Key takeaways
- 1
Base case: €635B+ by 2035, with every country except Spain at 3.5%.
- 2
Optimistic: €750B by 2035; pessimistic: €530B (2.6% average).
- 3
Crisis case: an Article 5 trigger pushes spending to €800B by 2030.
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