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Market Analysis (brief)Scope & outline

European Defense Spending Surge:
€800B ReArm Europe by 2030

At The Hague Summit (June 2025) 31 of 32 NATO members committed to 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2035 (3.5% core + 1.5% resilience). EU defence spending reaches €381B in 2025, ReArm Europe mobilises up to €800B through 2030, and the trajectory to 3.5–5% implies €2.7T of cumulative additional spending — at 5% of 2024 GDP, Germany from €90B to ~€215B, France €62B to ~€150B, Italy €33B to ~€110B — with four scenarios from a €530B fragmented response to an €800B Article 5 crisis case, and 760K new defence workers needed.

€800B
ReArm Europe leveraged spending through 2030
5% GDP
NATO binding target by 2035 (3.5% core + 1.5% resilience)
€2.7T
Cumulative additional European spending 2026–2035
760K
New defence workers needed for 3% GDP scenario

Chapters

What each chapter answers

  1. 011 min · Free

    Executive Summary: The €2.7T Transformation

    How much more will Europe spend on defence, and how fast?

    Executive summaryGrowth
  2. 021 min · Free

    Part I: Strategic Framework

    What did NATO actually agree, and how will compliance be checked?

    SplitTimeline
  3. 033 min · Free

    Part II: Country-by-country Analysis

    Which countries lead, and which lag?

    FrameworkLive Atlas
  4. 041 min · Subscribers

    Part III: Sectoral Impact Analysis

    What does the spending surge demand of Europe's defence industry?

    TableKey figures
  5. 051 min · Subscribers

    Part IV: Financial Mechanisms & Execution

    How will the €800B be financed?

    Split
  6. 061 min · Subscribers

    Part V: Risk Analysis & Scenarios

    How far will European spending actually rise by 2035?

    Trend
  7. 071 min · Subscribers

    Part VI: Strategic Implications

    How does the surge change the balance with the US, Russia and China?

    Ranking
  8. 081 min · Subscribers

    Appendices

    What supporting data sits behind the analysis?

The first 3 chapters of this and every report are open to everyone. Defence access opens all 8, with the models and their Excel files.

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Setcoin Atlas · Defence

The thesis, against the live record

Research and contract activity on public registers, mapped to the bottlenecks this report names.

10,007

awards & contracts on record

1,152

organisations

$48.1bn

awarded

2,477

new in the last 90 days

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