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Chapter 5 of 8Semiconductors1 min read · 1 exhibits

Executive Decision Support Tools

What could the next five years look like for chip equipment?

Chapter summary

Scenario matrices bracket 2025–2030, from steady AI demand to a recession shock, each assigned a 15–30% probability.

Key takeaways

  1. 1

    'Goldilocks': steady AI demand keeps equipment spending at $120–140B a year.

  2. 2

    'Memory super cycle': memory equipment spending doubles from $25B to $50B+.

  3. 3

    'Recession shock': equipment spending falls 40–50%.

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