The Defence-Led Path to 2030: a Narrative Scenario
What would the Earth observation industry look like in 2030 if today's defence-led trends continue?
Chapter summary
In Setcoin's base-case narrative, by 2030 most large European and Asian defence ministries own or control SAR and optical constellations built with commercial companies; US intelligence buys commercial imagery at a reduced but steady level alongside its own proliferated satellites; three or four Western SAR operators and three or four optical operators have survived consolidation; AI-driven analytics are routine in insurance, utilities and maritime security; and imagery prices per square kilometre have fallen by roughly half while total spending has nearly doubled.
Key takeaways
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This narrative is one way the base case could unfold, not a forecast.
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