Chapter 1 of 8Defence1 min read · 1 exhibits

Executive Summary: The €10B C-UAS Imperative

Why is counter-drone defence Europe's most urgent procurement gap?

Chapter summary

Cheap drones have inverted the cost of air defence: a $35K Shahed is routinely met with interceptors costing hundreds of thousands. Ukraine has shown that low-cost interceptor drones change that equation.

Key takeaways

1
The European C-UAS market is projected to grow from $1.24B (2025) to $4.16B (2030), a 27.5% CAGR.
2
NATO/EU investment of €10–15B is expected in 2026–2030; lasers are the fastest-growing segment.
3
Ukrainian interceptors cost $1,250–2,500, against about $200K for US alternatives.

At a glance

1 · Situation

Europe faces mass drone attacks: Russia launched 14,700+ Shahed-type drones between September 2022 and December 2024, and Poland alone has recorded 20+ incursions.

2 · Complication

Traditional air defence costs too much per shot and takes too long to buy: interceptors cost $500K–5M against $35K drones, and procurement typically takes 3–5 years.

3 · Resolution

A layered, low-cost defence led by interceptor drones ($1,250–15,000; 95% success for Merops) and multi-sensor networks, funded at €10–15B over 2026–2030.

Exhibit 1.1

A $35K drone is routinely met with interceptors costing up to 140 times as much

Cost per engagement · $

Traditional interceptor (upper)$500K–5M

US interceptor~$200K

Shahed drone (threat)$35K

Merops interceptor$15K

Ukrainian interceptor$1,250–2,500

Source: European Counter-Drone Market Assessment 2026–2030, Setcoin Research (February 2026)

The chapter · 171 words · 1 exhibits

Market Size & Growth:

European C-UAS market. $1.24B (2025) → $4.16B (2030)
CAGR. 27.5% (2025-2030)
Total NATO/EU investment. €10-15B (2026-2030)
Laser systems segment. Fastest growth (CAGR >30%)

The Cost Asymmetry Crisis:

$500-50K threats (drones) vs $500K-5M interceptors (traditional)
Russian Shahed. $35K cost
Ukrainian interceptors. $1,250-2,500 (vs US $200K)
Merops system. $15K interceptor, 95% success rate, 1,000+ Shahed kills
Economic unsustainability of current approach

Strategic Initiatives:

European Drone Defence Initiative (EDDI). "Drone Wall"
First capabilities. End 2026
Full functionality. 2027
Funding. €6B from Russian asset interest (partial)
NATO C-UAS Week (January 2026, Brussels)
Secretary General Rutte. "Drones here to stay"
Multi-award framework for rapid fielding 2026
11-day exercise (Netherlands, 20+ nations, 50+ companies)

NATO Capability Gap:

UK: Only 2 C-UAS regiments (grossly insufficient)
Netherlands. €1-2.5B emergency procurement
Every battalion needs organic C-UAS capability
"All-arms" air defense transformation required

Recent Incidents (2025):

Munich Airport. Drone suspensions, thousands affected
Copenhagen Airport. 4-hour shutdown
Poland. 20+ drone incursions, NATO consultations invoked
Belgium, Germany, Norway. Multiple critical infrastructure overflights
Volkel Air Base, Eindhoven Airport. Weekend incursions

Part I: Threat Landscape & Strategic Context

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