Government Share Stress Test
How exposed is an EO company's revenue to a cut in US intelligence purchases, and how fast can other customers make up the gap?
Chapter summary
Most Western EO companies earn the majority of their revenue from governments, and a part of that from US intelligence.
Key takeaways
- 1
Setcoin's stress-test model splits revenue into US intelligence, other government and commercial, applies a cut to the first and growth rates to the others, and reports next year's revenue.
- 2
For an illustrative company with $440 million of revenue, 60% from governments and 40% of that from US intelligence (about $106 million), a 30% US cut combined with 40% growth from other governments and 25% from commercial customers still gives revenue of about $516 million, up 17%.
- 3
A full loss of US intelligence revenue with no growth elsewhere cuts revenue by 24%.
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