Risk Analysis & Mitigation
What could derail the thesis, and how are the main risks contained?
Chapter summary
The chapter works through six risk families: technology and execution, regulation and geopolitics, market and competition, capital intensity, and the orbital environment itself. It closes with the mitigation framework. The emphasis is on risks that are measurable today rather than hypothetical.
Key takeaways
- 1
First-of-kind space systems overrun schedules by 18–36 months on average; 80% of rocket assembly is still manual.
- 2
All legacy US launch and re-entry licences expire on 10 March 2026 under FAA Part 450.
- 3
Capital is concentrated: 85% of space venture dollars go to the top 15 companies.
Key figures in this chapter
- 99.3%
- Falcon 9 success rate across 400+ missions
- 18–36 mo
- average overrun for first-of-kind systems
- 85%
- of space VC dollars to the top 15 companies
- −35%
- Firefly share price after a first-stage failure
Keep reading with Space access
This chapter (13 exhibits, 3,000 words) is part of Space & aerospace. Space access opens every chapter of all 11 Space reports, with the interactive models, Excel downloads, Ask and named Atlas records.
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- Lunar, Cislunar and Settlement Economics: What the Moon Costs and Who Pays, 2026–2060
- Earth Observation and AI Analytics: What a Square Kilometre Is Worth and Who Captures It, 2026–2035
- In-Space Manufacturing and Microgravity Biotech: Products, Platforms and Economics, 2026–2035
- Space-Based Solar Power: Physics, Costs and the Path to Firm Power from Orbit, 2026–2050
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